Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Searching for Cinderella: Valparaiso

Valparaiso won one of the most exciting games in NCAA Tournament history. Bryce Drew gave his team the win by orchestrating a perfectly designed play and nailing the jump shot. Valpo went to the Sweet 16 that year before falling to Rhode Island. They were a consistent tournament team in the late 90s and early 00s - they went dancing in 7 of 9 years from 1996 to 2004 - but since their 2004 Tournament loss, they have been to the Big Dance only once - a first round loss to Michigan St. in 2014. So why are we bringing up the Crusaders now? In part because Bryce Drew, the same Bryce Drew who hit the game winning shot in Valpo's biggest game of all time, is now the head coach of his former team and has them heading in the right direction. He is in his fifth year with the Crusaders who have won an average of 22.25 games per year in his four previous seasons. Not that they were struggling before he got there. The Drews have kept Valparaiso relevant for last 25+ years. Bryce's dad was the coach when he played and his brother was the coach for one short season before Bryce himself took over. The team, though, has really flourished under Bryce. They have played in the post-season every year he has been with the school, including that NCAA Tournament appearance in 2014. Valpo certainly has history, but the current squad is about more than just the past.

Valparaiso is 25-4 on the year and 12-2 in Horizon League play heading into tonight's game against Detroit. They have won 12 of 13 games, with the only loss coming by one point on the road against a good Green Bay team. A loss, by the way, that the Crusaders avenged by beating the Phoenix by 4 two weeks ago. They don't have any real marquee wins, but there are several solid ones on the schedule. They throttled Murray St. by 35 in late November and won on the road against Eastern Kentucky. There is also the win over Green Bay and one against Cleveland St. If the wins aren't particularly impressive, the stats will be.

Valpo scores 72.1 points per game, but they're really a defensive-minded team. They are 32nd in Ken Pomeroy's Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rankings. KenPom ranks them 65th overall, in fact. They are also 23rd in the country with 38.5 offensive rebounds per game and 17th in the country with 26.6 defensive rebounds per game. The defensive effort is led by Vashil Fernandez, who averages 2.9 blocks per game, and Tevonn Walker and Keith Carter, who both average 1.3 steals per game. Sophomore Alec Peters leads the team with 17 points per game and 6.7 rebounds per game.

If there is a knock on the Crusaders, it's that they're a young team. They have only 2 seniors on the roster and Fernandez is the only senior who plays meaningful minutes. They do get significant contributions from Juniors Keith Carter and Darien Walker, though.

The NCAA Tournament is so much about the draw you get dealt on Selection Sunday. Given the right draw, Valpo could be making a return trip to the Sweet 16 seventeen years after their now-coach sent them there.

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