Friday, February 20, 7:00PM Cleveland St. @ Green Bay
Both of these teams are looking up at first place Valparaiso, but they're also both still very much alive in in the regular season race. Cleveland St., for instance, ends their regular season slate with a home game against Valpo. If they get past Green Bay, that game could be for the regular season crown. On paper, Green Bay is the better team. They have 6 losses to Cleveland St.'s 11. They have an RPI of 54 compared to Cleveland St.'s 141. Their best nonconference win is on the road against Miami, whereas Cleveland St.'s best nonconference win is, well, Marshall. I guess? But the game is played on the court, and the last time these two teams met it was a 14 point win for the the Vikings. Green Bay also lost just last week to Valparaiso by 4. Still, those are the only two losses for the Phoenix in their last 9 games. Cleveland St. is also 7-2 in their last 9. Both are stingy defensive teams, allowing less than 62 points per game. Both sometimes struggle to score. It should be an incredibly evenly played game. And it will impact the Horizon League race. Cleveland St. controls it's own destiny. Win out, and they'll win the Horizon League. Green Bay needs some help, but it starts with a win over the Vikings on Friday night.
A-10 Out of 10
Saturday, February 21, 12:00PM UMass @ VCU
UMass is coming off a 16 point loss to Rhode Island and yet still find themselves just a game out of first place. VCU seems to have righted the ship after Briante Weber's injury and have won their past 2 games after losing 3 of 4. Weber's injury has been well documented, but VCU has seemingly adapted. They will continue to be tested down the stretch. They have 5 games remaining, 3 of which are against teams fighting for their tournament lives. VCU is in. There is no doubt about that. But in order to win the regular season A-10 Championship, they are going to need to keep winning. UMass is no sure thing for the tournament, and the only remaining game on their schedule that would give them a signature, quality win is Saturday's matchup with VCU. The Minutemen need this game to not only stay alive in the A-10 race, but also to solidify their at-large resume.
C-USA: From Sea to Shining...Texas
Saturday, February 21, 3:00PM Louisiana Tech @ Old Dominion
This is one of the more intriguing matchups we've had since we started this blog. Louisiana Tech is sitting alone in 1st place in C-USA with just 2 conference losses. They have won 13 of 15 and 4 in a row to get to this point. They're 21-6 overall, but really have no hope of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Old Dominion, on the other hand, looked like a lock for the NCAA Tournament not that long ago. They have very good nonconference wins against LSU and VCU and were at one time even ranked in the top 25. They are just 6-5 in their last 11 games, though, and are in 5th place in C-USA. They're still C-USA's best chance for an at-large bid, but they probably need to win out to make that happen. The toughest test they will face the rest of the way comes on Saturday.
James Bond Returns In...Big Skyfall
Saturday, February 21, 4:05PM Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona
The Eagles followed up their big win over Sacramento St. with a bad loss at home to Portland St. Call it a hangover loss, if you want, but the Eagles struggled again in a win over Southern Utah last week. Their recent performances have given life back to Sacramento St. and Montana who are both a game back of EWU. Northern Arizona is in 4th place and 2 games back, but a win here and a regular season-ending win over Sacramento St. would put the Lumberjacks right in the thick of the Big Sky race. For Eastern Washington, a big game looms ahead against Montana on February 28. It would be unwise for the Eagles to look past Northern Arizona, though.
Sweet Tea in the Big South
Saturday, February 21, 4:30PM Radford @ UNC Asheville
UNC Asheville was in the thick of the Big South race. That was before they lost back-to-back games, including a bad loss to Presbyterian. Now, they're sitting on the fringes and in desperate need of a big win. That win could come against Radford on Saturday. Radford was the hottest team in the Big South winning 8 in a row. They have since gone just 2-2, though, and have fallen out of 1st place. They're just a game behind but need to finish strong if they want a regular season championship. That goal is still attainable for UNC Asheville too, but they will need to start playing better quickly. It starts Saturday.
Poison Ivy League
Saturday, February 21, 7:00PM Princeton @ Harvard
Both teams have games on Friday night as well, but both teams should win those games setting up an important one on Saturday. Princeton is 2 games out of 1st place already and cannot afford to fall further behind. That would effectively end their NCAA Tournament hopes. Harvard, on the other hand, is tied with Yale atop the Ivy League standings and is also in need of the regular season title if they are going to make the NCAA Tournament. A loss puts their fate in Yale's hands - something I'm sure Tommy Amaker's squad is loath to do. If Harvard holds form, we are heading for a March 6 showdown between those two teams that will determine the Ivy League champion and which team will represent that league in the NCAA Tournament.
Crack is WAC
Saturday, February 21, 9:00PM New Mexico St. @ Grand Canyon
There are just a few WAC games remaining for each team, so if Grand Canyon wants to catch New Mexico St., this is a must win. The Antelopes are 2 back in the loss column, so they will need help to win the conference even if they beat the Aggies. A loss, though, hands New Mexico St. the regular season crown. A crown, by the way, they have earned. The Aggies have won 13 of 14 games by an average of 13.5 points, including a 22 point drubbing of Grand Canyon in late January. Their only loss in that stretch was a 6 point road loss against Seattle, which they avenged in impressive fashion by beating the Redhawks by 26 a couple weeks ago. All that is to say, New Mexico St. is playing well. They are the clear favorites to win the WAC, but if anyone is going to give them trouble, it is Grand Canyon. The Antelopes have won 5 of 6 to get themselves into 2nd place with a chance to make some waves in WAC play. They will need a solid game from leading scorer DeWayne Russel if they want to upset the best on this night.
West Coast in the Best Coast
Saturday, February 21, 10:00PM Gonzaga @ St. Mary's
If there is a big game in WCC conference play, it almost assuredly going to be between Gonzaga and St. Mary's. These 2 rivals have defined WCC basketball for years, and this season is no different. Gonzaga, of course, comes into the game as a top-5 team with just 1 loss on the season. They are more than likely going to be a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament and have Final Four aspirations. St. Mary's, as always, is solidly 2nd place in the WCC. They are 14-3 in their last 17 games and have opened up a 2 game lead on 3rd place BYU. Even so, they are a heavy underdog in this one. Gonzaga beat the Gaels by 21 earlier in the season, which is nothing to be ashamed of. Gonzaga is very good. But St. Mary's wants no moral victories in this game. They would love nothing more than to beat their rivals and knock them off the 1-seed line. St. Mary's themselves has an outside shot of making the NCAA Tournament, but because of a weak schedule and lack of quality wins those hopes rest on beating Gonzaga. The crowd will be rocking, but will that be enough to carry the Gaels to victory?
MAAC Ataack
Sunday, February 22, 4:00PM Monmouth @ Iona
Iona has a 3 game lead over Monmouth in the MAAC and a 2 game lead over their closest competitor. At this point, the MAAC is Iona's to lose. If they're going to lose it, Monmouth will have to have something to do with it. The Hawks have won 4 in a row and are looking to set themselves up for a run in the MAAC Tournament.
I'm Feeling Very Colonial Today. Powdered Wigs for All!
Sunday, February 22, 4:30PM William & Mary @ Hofstra
The Tribe have lost 2 in a row and dropped out of 1st place in the CAA. They are just 1 game behind in the loss column, though, so a regular season title is still very much a possibility for them. Hofstra needs a bit more help as they are 2 games behind 1st. They have played well of late winning 4 of 5. They will probably need to win out to have a chance at the CAA crown. William & Mary is the biggest obstacle standing in their way.
Next Week's Games We Have Our Eye On:
- Alabama St. @ Southern, Monday
- Bucknell @ Lehigh, Wednesday
- North Florida @ FGCU, Wednesday
- Davidson @ Rhode Island, Wednesday
- New Hampshire @ Vermont, Wednesday
- James Madison @ UNC-Wilmington, Wednesday
- Evansville @ Northern Iowa, Wednesday
- Wofford @ Mercer, Thursday
- UTEP @ Louisiana Tech, Thursday
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