Monday, March 16, 2015

Cinderella Suggestions

Is your bracket too chalk? Don't have any upsets? Here are some mid-major teams from each bracket who won't be favored but we think have the best chance to win a game or 2 and make a run at the Sweet 16. Are we picking all of these teams to go to the Sweet 16? No. But if you're looking for teams who could make a run, these are your best bet.

Midwest

(12) Buffalo - The Bulls play (5) West Virginia in their first round match-up. We like the Bulls for several reasons. First and foremost is Justin Moss. The Junior forward averages 17.7 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. He doesn't quite average a double-double, but he has had plenty during the year. The second reason we like the Bulls is because we don't think they will struggle with WVU's press. The Mountaineers like to turn their opponent over, but Buffalo has a Sophomore guard named Shannon Evans who can handle that pressure. He averages 4.7 assists per game to just 2.6 turnovers. Buffalo as a team averages only 11 turnovers a game. The game will be decided by that stat. If the Bulls can protect the ball, they can win the game. If WVU turns them over, they will win.

(13) Valparaiso - If one of these teams is able to run their offense efficiently, they will win the game. Neither team averages 70 points per game, so scoring could be at a premium. If Valpo is able to play the defense they have been playing against Horizon League competition against Maryland, they will be right in this game. The Crusaders give up just 59.3 points per game and hasn't given up more than 76 points in a non-overtime game all season. These teams are going to struggle to score, so if one team can get their players to the rim, they will win the game.

(7) Wichita St. - The Shockers as a Cinderella? The committee put Wichita St. in the field as a 7 seed, which sets them up in more of an underdog role. That's a position the Shockers haven't been in in several years. Last year, in fact, Wichita St. went into the tournament as a number 1 seed and undefeated. This year's squad will have something to prove, though. Indiana, their first round opponent, is a game we expect the Shockers to win. Their second round game would be against Kansas more than likely. That is where the upset pick really comes in. We like Wichita St. to take down the Jayhawks. The Shockers have been trying to schedule Kansas for years to prove that they are on the same playing field as one of the best programs of all time. Kansas hasn't taken that bait, but they won't be able to avoid it if both teams win their first round games. Wichita St. will come in with all the motivation they need to pull off the upset and get to the Sweet 16.

West

(12) Wofford - The Terriers are making their 2nd straight NCAA Tournament appearance after going 28-6 during the regular season and 16-2 in SoCon play. They have wins this year over Iona and NC State and have played Stanford, West Virginia, and Duke as well in the non-conference. In other words, they are tested and they performed well in those tests. They're led by Senior guard Karl Cochran who is one of the best players in the tournament nobody has heard of. Cochran leads the team in points (14.6), rebounds (5.8), assists (2.7), steals (1.8), and blocks (1.1) per game. Cochran will have an impact on this game. The real key, though, is pace of play. Wofford wants a slow and deliberate pace. They want to keep the score low. Arkansas wants to get out and run. They score 78 points per game, so they are looking to score quickly and frequently. If the Terriers can slow the game down and frustrate Arkansas, they will have a chance.

(11) BYU - Any team who can beat Gonzaga should be taken seriously. BYU was the only team to beat Gonzaga in WCC play and, along with Arizona, one of only two teams to beat them all year long. The Cougars have arguably the best scorer in the tournament in Tyler Haws who averages 21.9 points per game. BYU as a team does a great job scoring the basketball, in fact. They are 2nd in the country in scoring at 83.6 points per game. They play in the First Four in Dayton, so they have an extra game to get past, but this team has the talent to bust some brackets and make the Sweet 16.

East

(11) Dayton - For our money, the Flyers as an 11 seed is a horrible job of mis-seeding by the committee. Dayton should be on the 8-9 line, but as it stands they are playing in the First Four. That could be a blessing in disguise, though. It's essentially going to be a home game for the Flyers who would then play Providence in Columbus. That game would also be heavily attended by Flyer faithful. And don't think home court advantage is the only thing Dayton has going for them. They beat Texas A&M and Ole Miss in the non-conference. They also have wins over VCU and a pair of wins over Rhode Island. Even ore promising for Dayton is that Providence finished the season just 6-6 over their last 12 games.

(14) Albany - The Great Danes had one of the great moments of Championship Week with their buzzer beater against Stony Brook. It would be another miracle if they were able to advance in this tournament. They will be a decided underdog against the Big 12's Oklahoma. Albany is no stranger to winning, though. They are 24-8 overall, and they went 15-1 in America East play. As a 14 seed, this would be one of the bigger upsets in the tournament, but if any 14 can win this year, it's the Great Danes.

South

(12) Stephen F. Austin - The Lumberjacks have dominated the Southland Conference over the last several years. And they won one of the most exciting games of last year's NCAA Tournament when they beat VCU in the first round. They were a 12 seed then as well, so this is a position to they accustomed to. They have a prolific offense, mostly because of how well they share the ball. They are 1st in the nation in assist per game. It pays off for me. They have the 5th best field goal percentage in the country and score the 9th most points per game. They will be playing against a good defensive team in Utah, so if Stephen F. Austin can score at will, they will win the game. If it's a low scoring affair, that benefits the Utes.

(13) Eastern Washington - This pick is as much about Georgetown as it is about Eastern Washington. We like the Eagles, but the Hoyas have struggled in the NCAA Tournament in recent years. They have lost in the first round in 3 of the last 4 years and haven't made the Sweet 16 since 2007. For a team with expectations like Georgetown, that is unacceptable. The streak could continue this year because Eastern Washington will give them all they can handle. The Eagles beat Indiana in Assembly Hall, so they won't be intimidated. They have won 6 of 7 overall and are playing good basketball at the right time. They player you should know is Sophomore guard Tyler Harvey who averages 22.9 points per game for this high flying offense. The Eagles will give up points, but they can outscore their opponents. Georgetown better hope they have a game plan that can keep the Eagles in check or they may not make it out of the first round yet again.

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