Begins: March 6
Championship Game: March 9
Television Coverage: Comcast SportsNet, NBCSN
Tournament Bracket: http://caasports.com/documents/2014/9/26/Bracket_Page.pdf
Overview:
With 4 teams tied at 12-6 in conference play, this was no easy tournament to pick. And digging a bit deeper made it no easier. Those 4 teams are Northeastern, William & Mary, UNC-Wilmington, and James Madison. Here is how they fared against each other:
William & Mary: 5-1
UNC-Wilmington: 4-2
Northeastern: 3-3
James Madison: 0-6
At first look, it appears William & Mary and UNC-Wilmington are the better teams. But the fact that they played well against their toughest competition, means they lost more games against weaker opponents. The combined record of the other 5 teams William & Mary lost to, for example, is just 36-54. They beat the best and lost to the worst. James Madison, on the other hand, did not record a single win against the other top teams, but they did not lose a game to any other team. So who is the favorite? Your guess is as good as ours, but we'll give it our best shot.
Favorite to Win Tournament: William & Mary (18-11, 12-6)
The Tribe has proven that they can handle the top tier teams in the Colonial. If they can avoid an upset, they should be the ones heading to the Big Dance. Avoiding that upset is, of course, easier said than done. The draw favors them, though. William & Mary will play the winner of Elon and Towson. The Tribe are 3-1 against those teams this season and the loss was in early January on the road. They would then get the winner of James Madison and Hofstra, two teams they have not lost to this season.
Most Likely to Upset Favorite: UNC-Wilmington (17-12, 12-6)
UNC-Wilmington would likely be the favorite to win this tournament if not for their 2 losses to William & Mary. Both games were close, 4 and 3 points respectively, but that does not change the fact that the Seahawks can't seem to figure out the Tribe. Additionally, they dropped a head-scratcher in the regular season finale against Elon by 19 points. UNC-Wilmington could have wrapped up the number 1 seed in the CAA Tournament, but they laid a major egg. They ended up with the 2 seed and still receive a first round bye, so no real harm done. If they can put the Elon game behind them, they could be facing a third game with William & Mary. And they always say it's hard to beat a team 3 times in one season.
Dark Horse to Win: Drexel (11-18, 9-9)
This is a difficult team to figure out. The Dragons started the season just 3-13. They have been 8-5 since then, though, and at one point had won 6 in a row. They followed up the 6 game win streak with a losing streak of 4 and looked to be fading again. And then they beat William & Mary on the road when the Tribe had a chance to lock up the regular season championship. Drexel boasts wins over the aforementioned William & Mary, UNC-Wilmington, and Northeastern. In other words, when playing well, this team is dangerous. The question is, how well will they be playing when the CAA Tournament gets underway?
Expected Tournament Bid(s): Conference Tournament Winner
The CAA Tournament should be highly competition and fun to watch, but don't expect to see more than 1 of these teams in the NCAA Tournament. It's win or go home for these schools.
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