Life on the bubble in March is not an easy time for any
mid-major team. With fewer chances in their conference tournaments to pull off
one final quality win to seal their spot in the NCAA tournament, the only way to
guarantee their spot is to win out and take that guaranteed ticket to the big
dance. If these bubble teams fail to win their conference tournaments, here is
a look at their resumes to get an at-large berth into the NCAA tournament.
These first five teams should be in the field barring a lot of bid stealers or
a bad loss early in their conference tournament.
Colorado St.
|
Dayton
|
Davidson
|
Boise St.
|
Brigham Young
|
|
Overall
|
24-5
|
22-6
|
21-6
|
22-7
|
23-8
|
Road/Neutral
|
9-4
|
7-6
|
8-5
|
10-6
|
9-5
|
Last 12 Games
|
9-3
|
8-4
|
9-3
|
11-1
|
9-3
|
RPI vs Top 50
|
2-2
|
3-2
|
1-3
|
3-2
|
1-3
|
RPI
|
26
|
28
|
34
|
30
|
38
|
BPI
|
48
|
34
|
30
|
57
|
26
|
SOS
|
122
|
149
|
134
|
99
|
73
|
Non-Conf. SOS
|
104
|
138
|
236
|
187
|
13
|
Best Win
|
SDSU (25)
|
@VCU (19)
|
Dayton (28)
|
@SDSU (25)
|
@Gonzaga (8)
|
Worst Loss
|
UNM (169)
|
@Duq. (241)
|
@St Joe's (182)
|
@Fresno (190)
|
Pepp. (149)
|
Projected Seed
|
10
|
10
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
Colorado St. Rams
Colorado St. should be safely into the NCAA tournament. The
Rams have quality wins over San Diego St. and fellow bubble watcher Boise St.
With a good road/neutral record, last 12 games, RPI, SOS, and non-conference SOS,
Colorado St. boasts a strong enough resume
to get an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament out of the Mountain West
Conference. Although the Rams missed the tournament last season, Colorado St.
appeared in the 2012 and 2013 NCAA tournaments going 1-2.
Dayton Flyers
Dayton should also be safely into the NCAA tournament
despite a puzzling 10-point loss @Duquesne last weekend. The Flyers have quality
wins over Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and @Virginia Commonwealth. Dayton's
road/neutral record, last 12 games, and SOS are worse than the other five teams,
but the Flyers still have a strong record against the RPI Top 50, RPI, and BPI.
Dayton is poised to get back into the
NCAA tournament and should have a good enough resume to get into the field as
an at-large team out of the Atlantic 10 Conference. The Flyers made a strong
run in the NCAA tournament last year upsetting three power conference teams
before falling in the Elite Eight.
Davidson Wildacts
Davidson has become a bubble regular. The Wildcats need a
strong performance in the Atlantic 10 tournament to guarantee an at-large bid
into the NCAA tournament. While the Wildcats have a strong road/neutral record,
last 12 games, RPI, and BPI, Davidson could be punished for an unchallenging
non-conference schedule. With only one quality win over Dayton, the Wildcats
need to avoid an early upset in the Atlantic 10 Conference tournament and
possibly need to pick up at least one quality win there. The Wildcats failed to
make the NCAA tournament last season, but appeared in 2012 and 2013 falling in
the first round in both seasons.
Boise St. Broncos
Boise St. has been firmly on the bubble for weeks now, but
after finishing up a season sweep on the road against San Diego St., the
Broncos may have solidified their spot in the NCAA tournament. Boise St. has
been one of the hottest teams over their last 12 games and have a good
road/neutral record, RPI Top 50 record, RPI, and SOS. The Broncos BPI and
non-conference SOS are one of the worst of the other five teams, but Boise St.
should still be in a good position to get an at-large bid into the NCAA
tournament if they can avoid an early upset in the Mountain West Conference
tournament. The Broncos last tournament appearance was in 2013 and Boise St. is
still seeking their first victory (0-6) in the big dance.
Brigham Young Cougars
Brigham Young (BYU) picked up one of the biggest wins Saturday
for a mid-major team. While they stood on the outside looking in, the Cougars
went to Spokane and upset the #3 ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs to pick up a crucial
quality win that BYU previously lacked. The Cougars have a good road/neutral
record, last 12 games, RPI, BPI, SOS, and non-conference SOS. The only downside
to BYU's season was getting swept by Pepperdine and losing to San Diego in West
Coast Conference play. The Cougars need to avenge those losses in the West
Coast Conference tournament if they want to guarantee a spot in the NCAA
tournament. BYU has made 7 of the last 8 NCAA tournaments going 4-7.
Now let's take a look at the resumes of the five teams who
will likely need to win their conference tournament (or regular season in
Harvard's case) to get into the NCAA tournament.
Harvard
|
Rhode Island
|
Iona
|
Wofford
|
Murray St.
|
|
Overall
|
20-6
|
20-7
|
24-6
|
25-6
|
26-4
|
Road/Neutral
|
9-5
|
8-5
|
11-6
|
12-5
|
12-3
|
Last 12 Games
|
10-2
|
9-3
|
11-1
|
11-1
|
12-0
|
RPI vs Top 50
|
0-1
|
0-4
|
0-1
|
1-2
|
0-1
|
RPI
|
60
|
68
|
50
|
54
|
66
|
BPI
|
80
|
46
|
88
|
92
|
67
|
SOS
|
183
|
181
|
212
|
175
|
268
|
Non-Conf. SOS
|
149
|
244
|
101
|
14
|
257
|
Best Win
|
UMass (61)
|
UMass (61)
|
@Wake (124)
|
Iona (50)
|
Illinois St (77)
|
Worst Loss
|
@Cornell (218)
|
@St Joe's (182)
|
@GMU (214)
|
@Citadel (317)
|
Houston (269)
|
While all five of these teams boast strong win-loss records,
road/neutral records, and last 12 games, each of them has glaring weaknesses in
their resumes. All five of these teams lack a quality win, have bad losses, and
have a weak SOS. For these five teams, a loss in their conference tournament
will make for a stressful Selection Sunday as they will likely miss the cut or
have to play in the first four of the tournament if they can sneak into the
tournament despite their weak resumes.
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