Mid-Majors and the Art of Outplaying Your Seed

College basketball fans have become rather acquainted with the mid-major elites (Butler, Gonzaga, Wichita St.) and the recent bracket busters (Dayton, George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth). The 12 vs 5 upsets and the deep runs of the 11 seeds have also become a common occurrence almost every year. The one area that many people do not discuss is the mid-majors outplaying their seed. With the Selection Committee generally giving mid-majors double digit seeds, these teams are generally not favored to go far in the NCAA tournament. There have been a few that have not let their seed hold them back and some that have squandered under the pressure of a higher seed.

First, let us take a look at the methodology used to figure out these teams. The first four rounds were used to generate a plus or minus score showing if the team won more or less games in those rounds than expected. We excluded the First Four, Final Four, and Championship Games since those would feature matchups of the same seed assuming the 1 seeds all advanced. The idea is to see how well the team did based on their initial seeding.

Here is the breakdown of the expected record based on the team's seed:

1 seed: 4-0

2 seed: 3-1

3-4 seeds: 2-1

5-8 seeds: 1-1

9-16 seeds: 0-1

Now let us look at the teams that have excelled despite their lower seeds. Since 1985, Richmond and Western Kentucky are the only teams to have five more expected wins than their seeds suggested. Richmond has made the tournament only eight times since it expanded to 64 teams, but the Spiders make it count nearly every time Richmond gets there. In seven of those eight postseasons, Richmond was a double digit seed meaning the Spiders were expected to go 0-1 in each of those tournaments based on their seed. Richmond made the Round of 32 four of those times and then the Sweet 16 in two of those four postseasons. Overall, Richmond was expected to go 1-8 based on their seeds, but the Spiders actually went 6-8. Western Kentucky has made 12 tournaments since 1985. The Hilltoppers have only been seeded 1-8 in three of those seasons. All three of those seasons, Western Kentucky matched or exceeded the expectations based on their seed. As a 9-16 seed, Western Kentucky has made it into the Round of 32 three times and then the Sweet 16 in one of those three postseasons. Overall, Western Kentucky was expected to go 3-12 based on their seeds, but the Hilltoppers actually went 8-12. There have been four other teams to fair well despite their seed. Dayton, Kent St., Loyola Marymount, and Rhode Island all have four more expected wins than their seeds suggested.

Not all mid-majors get double digits seeds though. The Atlantic 10, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, and West Coast Conferences often get single digit seeds. Some of those teams have failed to excel despite the higher expectations. New Mexico has struggled the most with six fewer wins than expected based on their seed. The Lobos have been seeded 1-8 in eight of 12 tournament appearances since 1985. New Mexico has only made the Round of 32 in half of those postseasons. The Lobos have never made the Sweet 16 despite their seed suggesting that New Mexico should have made four Sweet 16's. Overall, New Mexico was expected to go 12-12 based on their seeds, but the Lobos actually went 6-12. While Massachusetts has been successful in the tournament, the Minutemen have underperformed based on their seeds. Massachusetts has made eight tournament since 1985. The Minutemen made the expected round in four of those postseasons, but underperformed in the other four based on their seed. Massachusetts has five less wins than expected based on their seeds. Overall, Massachusetts was expected to go 16-7 based on the seeds, but the Minutemen actually went 11-7. There have been two other teams to struggle despite gaining higher seeds. Brigham Young and UNLV have four less expected wins than their seeds suggested. Of the five mid-majors with the most expected wins, only the Gonzaga Bulldogs have avoided a negative expected win total. In Gonzaga's 18 tournament appearances, the Bulldogs were expected to get 20 wins. Gonzaga has exactly 22 wins in those 18 postseasons.

There are five conferences with more actual wins than expected wins in the double digits. These numbers take into account the current teams of that conference and the teams' entire tournament histories even if those wins came in a different conference. The current members of the Atlantic 10 and Mid American Conferences have 18 more wins than expected. Conference USA and the Missouri Valley Conference have 14 more wins than expected. The Horizon League has 10 more wins than expected. The only mid-major conference with less wins than expected is the Mountain West Conference. The current members of the Mountain West Conference have six less wins than expected.

While seeding is not always indicative of a team's actual abilities especially when the Selection Committee generally punishes mid-majors because of weaker conference schedules, there have definitely been certain teams to rise above their seeds and some that have struggled  to live up to their higher expectations. The tournament provides many opportunities for these teams to keep proving the Selection Committee wrong or to turn around their struggles in the NCAA tournament.