Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Northeast: Conference Tournament Preview

Begins: March 4
Championship Game: March 10
Television Coverage: NEC Front Row, MSG, Cox Sports, ESPN2

Tournament Bracket: http://northeastconference.org/documents/2015/2/9/bracket15_mbb_wbb.pdf

Overview:
Mount St. Mary's has been to the NEC championship game two years in a row and won the whole thing as a 4 seed last year. They come in as a 4 seed again this season, so it's probably best to keep an eye on them. This is a tournament that has not been won by the top seed since 2012. If that trend continues it will come at the expense of top seeded St. Francis (NY). The Terriers are looking to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history. The group behind them have all made recent tournament appearances, but the Terriers have dominated the league this year winning the regular season by 3 games.

Favorite to Win: St. Francis (NY) (21-10, 15-3)

The Terriers are 3-3 against the 2, 3, and 4 seeds in the NEC this season splitting their series with each team. Where they have set themselves apart is how they have handled the bottom of the conference. They are a perfect 12-0 against teams .500 or worse in conference play. The NEC reseeds the bracket after the first round, so it is entirely possible that St. Francis will not play one of the top seeds until the championship game. If that's the case, the Terriers will be the favorite to go dancing for the first time.

Most Likely to Upset Favorite: Robert Morris (16-14, 12-6)

Robert Morris is the 2 seed, but the real reason they are the pick to beat the Terriers is because of how close their games have been. Robert Morris lost to St. Francis (NY) by just 5 in their first meeting, but then came back and beat the Terriers on the road by 2 just over a week later. They are evenly matched and very familiar with each other. If they meet, it will be in the title game, and it will be a good one.

Dark Horse to Win: LIU Brooklyn (12-17, 8-10)

LIU Brooklyn is 5 games under .500 overall and 2 games under .500 in the conference. They have lost 4 games in a row coming into the conference tournament. And they have lost twice this season to their first round opponent and number 1 seed, St. Francis (NY). So why are they the dark horse pick to win? Because this is a team who can get hot. The Blackbirds' season is made up of winning and losing streaks. They started the season 0-6. Then they cam back and won 4 straight. They followed that up by losing 6 of 8. Then they won 6 of 7. That brings us to their most recent streak - the 4 game losing streak mentioned earlier. If the Blackbirds can find their mojo at the right time, they could run through the conference tournament. And it's not totally unreasonable to think they may give St. Francis a run for their money either. LIU Brooklyn took them to overtime just a week ago.

Expected Tournament Bid(s): Conference Tournament Winner

Regardless of what happens in this tournament, the NEC is only getting one bid to the NCAA Tournament. In fact, they will almost assuredly be a 16 seed and could very well be playing in the First Four. The winner may not be very likely to win an NCAA Tournament game, but that won't stop them from leaving everything they've got on the court in order to get there.

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