Finally! Final Four Viewing Guide

The whole season has built to this weekend. The Final Four begins on Saturday, and there will be some great action on Saturday and, of course, Monday night. We'll have a preview of Monday night's championship game on Sunday night, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Here is a look at Saturday's Final Four games.

6:09PM, TBS - (7) Michigan St. vs. (1) Duke

Michigan St. Analysis: http://definemidmajor.blogspot.com/2015/04/final-four-team-preview-michigan-st.html
Duke Analysis: http://definemidmajor.blogspot.com/2015/04/final-four-team-preview-duke.html

Vegas says Duke and Michigan St. are the underdogs in this Final Four. The odds makers give Kentucky and Wisconsin better chances to take home the championship. The Blue Devils have to be at least a little miffed at that considering they have beaten 2 of the other 3 teams in this Final Four this season, including beating their opponent on Saturday. Duke beat Michigan St. by 10 points on November 18. Sure, that was a long time ago and both teams are very different now, but that should give Duke some confidence coming in. Confidence doesn't win games, though, so Duke will need to forget that game in order to win this one.

There is one key to the game for Michigan St., and it's been the same key to all of the Spartans' games during the NCAA Tournament. Travis Trice. Trice is such a huge part of their offense that if he isn't clicking, the team isn't clicking. Duke will focus on him. In similar situations, Duke has played man-to-man defense and put Quinn Cook on the opposing team's best player. He hounded Marcus Paige in both games against Carolina and he was all over Kevin Pangos in the Gonzaga game. Cook will more than likely be doing the same thing against Trice. Watch that matchup. If Cook is able to play through screens and stay on Trice to shut him down, Michigan St. will struggle with their offense. If Trice is able to get free and force Duke to switch defensively, it will be a close game.

For Duke, the key to the game is Justice Winslow. Cook and Tyus Jones will be there. Jahlil Okafor will score his points. Will Winslow be the player who has dominated in this NCAA Tournament or will he be the player who disappeared in early January when this team wasn't playing well? He seems to soak up the big stage rather than shy away from it, which is a good sign for Duke. But he will need to be focused and on his game for 40 minutes on Saturday. Duke will not be able to afford the lapses that he is sometimes prone to.

8:49PM, TBS - (1) Wisconsin vs. (1) Kentucky

Wisconsin Analysis: http://definemidmajor.blogspot.com/2015/03/final-four-team-preview-wisconsin.html
Kentucky Analysis: http://definemidmajor.blogspot.com/2015/03/final-four-team-preview-kentucky.html

Wisconsin is saying all the right things. They have been saying all week that it will take a nearly perfect game for them to beat Kentucky and that they know what they're up against. They're also saying they believe in their team and their coach and their strategy. That said, saying the right things and doing the right things are very different. Can Wisconsin do enough to upset the 38-0 Wildcats? Kentucky, for their part, are saying all the right things too. They respect Wisconsin. They know they have the player who can beat them. Wisconsin is not going to sneak up on Kentucky. Will that focus be enough for the Wildcats?

Kentucky does what they do, and they don't change for anyone. When the game isn't going their way, they simply ratchet is up and play harder. And it works. Kentucky makes the plays when they need them. They showed it during the regular season, but it was most evident against Notre Dame. The Irish had Kentucky right where they wanted them, and yet it still slipped away. Credit Kentucky for that. And credit Aaron Harrison who seems to always be that person to hit the big shot for the Wildcats. In crunch time, Harrison will get the ball. Wisconsin should be ready for that. They should try to force someone else to beat them because Harrison has proven he can, and will, beat you if he is the one taking the shot.

There is a checklist of items that Wisconsin needs to do well in order to win this game:

• Control the Tempo - Wisconsin cannot let Kentucky speed them up. Wisconsin plays a slow and deliberate game, which is not to say they aren't a high-powered offensive team. They can score, and do score, well. They shouldn't let Kentucky's style of play change theirs. They should slow the game down and run the offense they know.
• Stick to You Strategy - Bo Ryan surely has a game plan in place. The players need to trust in their coach and stick to that plan. At times, Kentucky will blow that plan up. They're a good team, after all. Wisconsin's players can't get frustrated and panic. Stick to the plan. Do what you have practiced. Stick with it. Kentucky is beatable, but not if you lose your head and play a game that isn't yours.
• Don't Foul - Wisconsin fouls less than any other team in the country. The way Kentucky plays almost forces teams to foul them. If Wisconsin is fouling and getting into foul trouble, the Wildcats will run away with this game because they will live at the free throw line. You can't give this team free points. The Badgers should be good at keeping Kentucky off the line. They need to stay disciplined in that regard.
• Don't Turn the Ball Over - Again, Wisconsin doesn't turn the ball over very much. They average just 7 turnovers per game. Kentucky would love to take turnovers and turn them into points. Wisconsin cannot give them that advantage. Hold onto the ball and Wisconsin will have a good chance to keep this game close until the end. They can't afford to let Kentucky score easy points. Turning the ball over is not an option for Wisconsin.

If Wisconsin can tick those boxes on their checklist, they will win the game. Kentucky hasn't played a team as good as Wisconsin all season long. But if Wisconsin doesn't hit just one of those boxes, Kentucky will win. Wisconsin cannot afford mistakes because Kentucky will eat those mistakes up and put the game away. If there is any team who can play perfectly, it's Wisconsin. Whether or not they'll be able to remains to be seen.

Final Four Team Preview: Duke

Duke Blue Devils, 33-4

• Conference: ACC
• Seed: 1
• Leading Scorer: Jahlil Okafor (17.7 points per game)
• Path to the Final Four:
• Round 1 - Defeated Robert Morris, 85-56
• Round of 32 - Defeated San Diego St., 68-49
• Sweet 16 - Defeated Utah, 63-57
• Elite 8 - Defeated Gonzaga, 66-52

During the non-conference, Duke was dominant. They were clearly the 2nd best team in the country, and the argument could be made that Duke had a better resume than Kentucky. They had wins over Michigan St., Temple, Stanford, Wisconsin, and Connecticut. Then ACC play began. The devils beat Boston College at home and then escaped Wake Forrest. They lost their next game to NC State on the road, and then got shellacked at home by Miami. People were screaming that Duke was falling apart. The Devils couldn't play defense. They were not a real contender. They had to travel to Louisville to play Rick Pitino and were staring a 3 game losing streak right in the face. Those are the kinds of games the Duke program has become to be known for, though. Coach K played zone defense for nearly the entire game (which is practically unheard of for the legendary coach), and Duke handled the Cardinals easily. They were going to be just fine.

Duke would only lose two games the rest of the year, both to Notre Dame. During that stretch they got wins over St. John's, Virginia, Notre Dame, and North Carolina twice. There were very few teams in the country who could boast the kind of resume the Blue Devils could when Selection Sunday rolled around. It was somewhat of a surprise that Villanova got the number 2 overall seed ahead of Duke given the sheer number of quality wins for the Blue Devils. Even so, Duke was on the 1 line...yet again.

Recent NCAA Tournament history has not been kind to Duke. The Blue Devils lost as a 2 seed to Lehigh in 2012 and lost to Mercer as a 3 seed last year. This is, of course, a different team. Some players returned, but the infusion of the best freshman class in the country has totally changed the dynamic of the Blue Devils. Last year's players sometimes shrunk when the pressure was on, and that showed in their tournament game against Mercer. This year's team seems to thrive when they get behind and need a big play. Let's talk about some of those players.

Jahlil Okafor gets his. The best player in college basketball this year is an offensive juggernaut. He simply cannot be stopped at times in the post. He does not, however, play very solid defense. For that reason, and because he sometimes gets tired during games, Coach K will sit him for stretches. That leaves the play-making to his teammates. And make plays they have. You have to start with the Senior Quinn Cook. Cook has gone from an erratic player in his Freshman year to perhaps the most consistent player in this his final year. He hits big threes when the team needs him and has played lock-down defense on some of the best offensive weapons in the country. His backcourt teammate, Tyus Jones, has learned well from Cook. Jones has the ability to get to the rim and finish, and he does just that when the game is on the line. Jones made huge plays in Duke's wins over St. John's and Wisconsin and both Carolina wins. He has no fear to take the ball at any moment. Then there's Justice Winslow.

Winslow looks to be a lottery pick in the NBA draft, but for now he is emerging as the best player on this Duke team. And that's saying something. Winslow can do it all. He scores, he rebounds, he steals, he blocks shots, he gets assists. If Duke is going to win a National Championship, it will be because Justice Winslow took them there. Okafor is great, and he will be a big part of it. Cook's play and leadership cannot go unmentioned. Tyus Jones is one of the most clutch players in all of college hoops. But Justice Winslow is more important to this team than any of them.

So how do you beat them? Duke is going to score. They average more than 80 points per game and are the 3rd best team in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy. Playing solid defense against them is a must, but they are still going to score. The way to beat the Blue Devils is to exploit their defensive weaknesses. Mainly, the dribble drive. Duke's guards are not quick enough defensively to contain a screened dribble drive. Jahlil Okafor, who could be a rim-protecting shot blocker, just doesn't handle help defense very well. There are opportunities to score at the rim against this team if you drive the ball. That said, Coach K has been really good recently in switching up his defenses. He has played much more zone this year than any year since he's been in coaching. He will run a 2-3, 3-2, or even 1-2-2 zone. He will mix it 3/4 court pressures. And he will switch back to his comfortable man-to-man. All in an attempt to confuse opposing offenses and take the pressure off his defense. A team that can beat Duke will recognize what defense is facing them and attack it appropriately. There are holes there, no matter the defense. And outscoring the Blue Devils is your best bet to beat them.

Duke has looked like the most worthy challenger to Kentucky for most of this season. Will they get the opportunity to face the Wildcats on Monday night for a title? Michigan St. will certainly have something to say about that. 

Final Four Team Preview: Michigan St.

Michigan St. Spartans, 27-11

• Conference: Big Ten
• Seed: 7
• Leading Scorer: Travis Trice (14.8 points per game)
• Path to the Final Four:
• Round 1 - Defeated Georgia, 70-63
• Round of 32 - Defeated Virginia, 60-54
• Sweet 16 - Defeated Oklahoma, 62-58
• Elite 8 - Defeated Louisville, 76, 70 (Overtime)

Michigan St. was not a Final Four team. They weren't even a top 25 team. The Spartans were just 19-10 and 10-6 in the Big Ten. The had losses to Minnesota, Illinois, Nebraska, and Texas Southern. They were coming off back-to-back losses, including a home loss to Minnesota. And this wasn't ancient history. The second of those back-to-back losses was on March 1. March, though, belongs to Tom Izzo.

Michigan St. rebounding by winning two big games over Purdue and Indiana to set themselves up for the Big Ten Tournament. They took out Ohio St. and Maryland to set up a monster game against Wisconsin for the Big Ten Championship. The Spartans lost the game, of course, but they took the Badgers to overtime and played right with them for 40 minutes. Clearly, this team began to believe more and more that they had a chance to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

That is exactly what happened, which should come as no surprise to anyone who has been following college basketball since Tom Izzo took over the reigns at Michigan St. Izzo always seems to have his players playing their best basketball during the tournament. This season is no exception. Michigan St. is able to win games now that they could not, and did not, win during the regular season. They're doing it mostly on the defensive side of the ball. They have given up just 61.3 points per game in the tournament so far, down nearly 2 points from their season average. 

So how do you beat them? As with any Michigan St. team, you have to be prepared to rebound the basketball. The Spartans will go after it, like they always do. This year's team is also one of the best teams in the country at sharing the basketball. They average 17.1 assists per game and are an efficient offensive team. Ken Pomeroy has them ranked as his 13th best team in the country for offensive efficiency. So if you're going to beat them, you need to disrupt their offense. That starts with Travis Trice. Trice is Michigan St.'s version of Aaron Harrison. He is always hitting the big shot when the game is on the line. He hits big shots, but he is not averse to giving up the ball either. He also leads the team in assists (5.2 per game). If you're able to control Trice, you'll seriously hamper Michigan St.'s offense because so much of it runs through Trice.

Stopping Travis Trice is easier said than done, of course. Just ask Virginia, Oklahoma, and Louisville. Can Duke get the job done where others have failed? The Blue Devils will no doubt have Quinn Cook shadowing Trice, much like he did on Kevin Pangos in the Gonzaga game or Marcus Paige when they played Carolina. If Cook is able to annoy Trice and force him into a poor game, Duke will win. If Trice gets free, Michigan St. could be playing for a national title.