Final Four Team Preview: Duke

Duke Blue Devils, 33-4

• Conference: ACC
• Seed: 1
• Leading Scorer: Jahlil Okafor (17.7 points per game)
• Path to the Final Four:
• Round 1 - Defeated Robert Morris, 85-56
• Round of 32 - Defeated San Diego St., 68-49
• Sweet 16 - Defeated Utah, 63-57
• Elite 8 - Defeated Gonzaga, 66-52

During the non-conference, Duke was dominant. They were clearly the 2nd best team in the country, and the argument could be made that Duke had a better resume than Kentucky. They had wins over Michigan St., Temple, Stanford, Wisconsin, and Connecticut. Then ACC play began. The devils beat Boston College at home and then escaped Wake Forrest. They lost their next game to NC State on the road, and then got shellacked at home by Miami. People were screaming that Duke was falling apart. The Devils couldn't play defense. They were not a real contender. They had to travel to Louisville to play Rick Pitino and were staring a 3 game losing streak right in the face. Those are the kinds of games the Duke program has become to be known for, though. Coach K played zone defense for nearly the entire game (which is practically unheard of for the legendary coach), and Duke handled the Cardinals easily. They were going to be just fine.

Duke would only lose two games the rest of the year, both to Notre Dame. During that stretch they got wins over St. John's, Virginia, Notre Dame, and North Carolina twice. There were very few teams in the country who could boast the kind of resume the Blue Devils could when Selection Sunday rolled around. It was somewhat of a surprise that Villanova got the number 2 overall seed ahead of Duke given the sheer number of quality wins for the Blue Devils. Even so, Duke was on the 1 line...yet again.

Recent NCAA Tournament history has not been kind to Duke. The Blue Devils lost as a 2 seed to Lehigh in 2012 and lost to Mercer as a 3 seed last year. This is, of course, a different team. Some players returned, but the infusion of the best freshman class in the country has totally changed the dynamic of the Blue Devils. Last year's players sometimes shrunk when the pressure was on, and that showed in their tournament game against Mercer. This year's team seems to thrive when they get behind and need a big play. Let's talk about some of those players.

Jahlil Okafor gets his. The best player in college basketball this year is an offensive juggernaut. He simply cannot be stopped at times in the post. He does not, however, play very solid defense. For that reason, and because he sometimes gets tired during games, Coach K will sit him for stretches. That leaves the play-making to his teammates. And make plays they have. You have to start with the Senior Quinn Cook. Cook has gone from an erratic player in his Freshman year to perhaps the most consistent player in this his final year. He hits big threes when the team needs him and has played lock-down defense on some of the best offensive weapons in the country. His backcourt teammate, Tyus Jones, has learned well from Cook. Jones has the ability to get to the rim and finish, and he does just that when the game is on the line. Jones made huge plays in Duke's wins over St. John's and Wisconsin and both Carolina wins. He has no fear to take the ball at any moment. Then there's Justice Winslow.

Winslow looks to be a lottery pick in the NBA draft, but for now he is emerging as the best player on this Duke team. And that's saying something. Winslow can do it all. He scores, he rebounds, he steals, he blocks shots, he gets assists. If Duke is going to win a National Championship, it will be because Justice Winslow took them there. Okafor is great, and he will be a big part of it. Cook's play and leadership cannot go unmentioned. Tyus Jones is one of the most clutch players in all of college hoops. But Justice Winslow is more important to this team than any of them.

So how do you beat them? Duke is going to score. They average more than 80 points per game and are the 3rd best team in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy. Playing solid defense against them is a must, but they are still going to score. The way to beat the Blue Devils is to exploit their defensive weaknesses. Mainly, the dribble drive. Duke's guards are not quick enough defensively to contain a screened dribble drive. Jahlil Okafor, who could be a rim-protecting shot blocker, just doesn't handle help defense very well. There are opportunities to score at the rim against this team if you drive the ball. That said, Coach K has been really good recently in switching up his defenses. He has played much more zone this year than any year since he's been in coaching. He will run a 2-3, 3-2, or even 1-2-2 zone. He will mix it 3/4 court pressures. And he will switch back to his comfortable man-to-man. All in an attempt to confuse opposing offenses and take the pressure off his defense. A team that can beat Duke will recognize what defense is facing them and attack it appropriately. There are holes there, no matter the defense. And outscoring the Blue Devils is your best bet to beat them.

Duke has looked like the most worthy challenger to Kentucky for most of this season. Will they get the opportunity to face the Wildcats on Monday night for a title? Michigan St. will certainly have something to say about that.