Mid Majors and the Power of the 11 Seed

The 12 seeds get all the glory from analysts and bracket gurus when it comes to making first round upset picks. The 12 seeds certainly deserve that love when they go 8-4 in a three year stretch. The 11 seeds may be the true upset kings though. The 11 seeds are causing just as many first and second round upsets, but the 11 seeds are making deeper runs in the NCAA tournament.

Since 1985, the 12 seeds have accounted for 44 first round upsets while the 11 seeds have accounted for 43 first round upsets. The numbers have been similar of late. In the last five years, there have been 9 first round upsets from 12 seeds and 10 first round upsets from the 11 seeds. The 12 seeds had their streak of seven straight tournaments with a first round upset come to an end this year. Meanwhile, the 11 seeds extended their streak to 11 straight years with wins from UCLA and Dayton. The numbers are nearly equal in the second round as well. The 12 seeds have 20 upsets compared to the 18 upsets from 11 seeds. While the 12 seeds' upsets are more impressive since they came against higher seeds, the 11 seeds are holding their own in the first and second rounds when compared to the 12 seeds.

The 11 seeds really make their bracket busting name when it comes to the second weekend of the tournament. There have been seven teams seeded 11 and above to make the Elite Eight. Six of them were 11 seeds. The one exception was 12 seeded Missouri in 2002. The last five 11 seeds to make the Elite Eight were from mid-major conferences. Dayton was the most recent 11 seed to make the Elite Eight last year. Before them were Virginia Commonwealth (2011), George Mason (2006), Temple (2001), and Loyola Marymount (1990). Dayton will look to make it back-to-back appearances in the Sweet Sixteen and possibly the Elite Eight if they can defeat Oklahoma today and the winner of Michigan St and Virginia. If Dayton can make it that far, the Flyers could get a chance to make the Final Four, which is something only three other teams seeded 11 and above have done before. Two of those three teams were from mid-major conferences (2011 Virginia Commonwealth and 2006 George Mason). Both Virginia Commonwealth and George Mason defeated one seeds with multiple national titles. Virginia Commonwealth defeated Kansas who has three national titles. George Mason defeated Connecticut who has four national titles. While the one seed has already been upset in Dayton's bracket, Louisville still remains who has won three national titles.

The 12 seeds definitely deserve credit for their many first round upsets, but the 11 seeds are the true bracket busters. It is only a matter of time before another 11 seed makes it into the Final Four and possibly the national title game. UCLA is only two games away from a Final Four and Dayton is now only three games away from a Final Four. Could UCLA join LSU as the next power conference 11 seed to make a Final Four? Can Dayton bust brackets for a second straight season? We will soon find out.