The Weekend Ahead, February 27-March 1

Look to the Horizon
Friday, February 27, 10:00PM Valparaiso @ Cleveland St.
Valparaiso could have wrapped up a Horizon League championship with a win over Detroit on Wednesday night. Instead, the Titans pulled off the upset and gave life to Cleveland St., Oakland, and Green Bay. Those are the 3 teams who all now trail Valpo by just one game in the loss column. The fates of those teams lies with Cleveland St. If the Vikings can knock off Valpo, the Horizon League could finish with as many as 3 teams tied for first. Cleveland St. could be playing for the regular season title, but after their big win over Green Bay, they lost to Milwaukee. The upsets and relative balance in the league are a testament to just how good the Horizon League is. This will be a fun conference tournament.

The Hills and The Valley
Saturday, February 28, 2:00PM Northern Iowa @ Wichita St.
This is the one that we've all had circled on our calendars. These teams might play in a midmajor conference, but this is a very major game. Northern Iowa has steadily risen up the rankings and comes into the game ranked 10th. Wichita St. began the season highly ranked and nothing about their play has made anyone question that ranking. They're currently 11th. The two teams met in late January and Northern Iowa beat the Shockers in impressive fashion, 70-54. That was only Wichita St.'s 3rd loss of the season. The other two were against Utah and George Washington. The Panthers have only lost twice, road games at VCU and Evansville. Northern Iowa avenged their Evansville loss during the week. Wichita St. will look to avenge their only conference loss on Saturday. The winner of this one takes home the regular season championship and gets a leg-up on NCAA Tournament seeding.

Saluting You, Patriot League
Saturday, February 28, 2:00PM Lehigh @ Colgate
Colgate is a game ahead of Lehigh and a game behind Bucknell in the Patriot League standings. Bucknell ends the season on the road against American, so Colgate will need to beat Lehigh and hope for the Bison to lose if they want a share of the regular season title. Lehigh is coming off a big win over Bucknell to set up the importance of this game. If the Mountain Hawks win, they will move into a tie for second place.

A-10 Out of 10
Saturday, February 28, 2:00PM Dayton @ VCU
There are 4 teams tied for first place in the A-10 after Davidson beat Rhode Island and Richmond beat VCU this week. VCU and Dayton are 2 of those teams. VCU is solidly in the tournament, but their seeding has taken a hit recently. The Rams are just 3-3 in their last six games. And, in addition to this game against Dayton, they also have a game with Davidson before finishing the season against George Mason. The Flyers have an equally brutal finish. The travel to VCU and then get Rhode Island at home before finishing against LaSalle. There are too many crucial games left to make predictions about where these teams will finish in the A-10 standings, but this game will go a long way to giving us some idea.

Look to the Horizon
Saturday, February 28, 2:00PM Oakland @ Green Bay
When Green Bay beat number 15 Miami on the road in early December, the Phoenix looked like the prohibitive favorite to win the Horizon League. They lost only 2 nonconference games, in fact, and one of those was to number 3 Wisconsin. They have stumbled a bit in Horizon play, though, and left us wondering if they Miami team they beat was the one who beat Duke in Cameron or the one who lost to Eastern Kentucky by 28 points. Green Bay has beaten the teams they were supposed to beat since Horizon play started, but they are just 1-4 against the top 3 teams in the Horizon standings. One of those losses came against Oakland on January 15. The Grizzlies are 11-2 in their last 13 games including the win over Green Bay and one against Cleveland St. They also split their games against Valpo this season. Another win over Green Bay would give them a chance at a regular season championship and set them up for a run in the Horizon League Tournament.

Sweet Tea in the Big South
Saturday, February 28, 4:30PM High Point @ Charleston Southern
With Charleston Southern's loss last week to Weber St., High Point can win the Big South outright with a win on Saturday. The Panthers did beat Charleston Southern in their first meeting, but that was in early January. The Buccaneers have played well since then and are just 1 game behind High Point. Still, the loss to Weber St. was a bad one for Charleston Southern. Had they won that game, they would be playing for the outright championship. As it stands, the best they can hope for is a share of the title with High Point.

James Bond Will Return in...Big Skyfall
Saturday, February 28, 5:00PM Montana @ Eastern Washington
Montana had won 5 games in a row to climb back into first place in the Big Sky. And then they lost. To Idaho. Call it a look ahead game if you want, but it puts the Grizzlies in a tough spot. They now have to beat Eastern Washington on the road if they want a share of the regular season title. That's no easy task. The Eagles have lost only once at home all season. They are just 2-2 in their last 4 games after the win against Sacramento St., though. If they were to lose to Montana, Sacramento St. would sit alone in first place. If they win, they're over their biggest hurdle for the remainder of the regular season.

No One on the Corner Have SWAC-a Like Us
Saturday, February 28, 6:00PM Texas Southern @ Alabama St.
These two teams are tied for first place in the SWAC coming into the game. Texas Southern has been streaking winning 12 of their last 14 and 4 in a row. During that stretch they also have a win over Alabama St. Not that the Hornets have been slouching. They have won 13 of 15 including 2 wins over third place Southern. The winner of this game has the inside track at the regular season championship. The loser will need some help to get there.


Return of the MAC
Saturday, February 28, 7:00PM Kent St. @ Buffalo
Kent St. comes into the game tied for first place in the MAC East. Buffalo sits just a game behind. Both teams have had ups and downs to get to this point. Kent St. won 4 out of 5 games, and then lost to Miami (OH) in overtime. They could have been alone in first, but the surprising loss keeps the race interesting. Buffalo looked to be falling out of the race altogether just a few weeks ago when they lost three games straight. They have since won three straight, including huge wins over first place Bowling Green and Akron, who is just a game behind the Bulls. Bobby Hurley's team now has a chance to knock off one of the teams directly in front of them and make a run at a regular season championship.


MWC You in March
Saturday, February 28, 8:00PM Boise St. @ San Diego St.
Another monster game for a bubble team. Boise St. is planted firmly and squarely on that bubble and desperately needs another marquee win to show off to the Selection Committee. That win could come in the form of a season sweep of SDSU on Saturday night. It won't come easily, though. The Aztecs haven't lost at home since November 14...of 2013. Boise should have confidence coming in, though. They not only beat San Diego St. just a few weeks ago; they beat them by 15 holding the Aztecs to just 46 points. That's the fewest points San Diego St. has scored since a December 7 loss to Washington. Since their loss to Boise St., though, the Aztecs have averaged 69 points per game - all wins.

Near Misses and Major Blowouts: Recapping the Week, February 23-27

No One on the Corner Have SWAC-a Like Us
Monday, February 23
Alabama St. - 56
Southern - 54
This game certainly lived up to the hype. Alabama St. came into the contest one game ahead of Southern in the SWAC standings. It was clear on Monday night that they are evenly matched teams. No team led by more than 5 in the first half, and Southern took just a 4 point lead into the break. Southern led by as many as 7 in the second half, but Alabama St. chipped away at the lead little by little. The Hornets finally tied the game at 52 with just under 2:30 left to play. Southern regained the lead on their next possession, but Jamel Waters was not going to let his team lose. He got fouled on Alabama St.'s next possession and made both free throws to tie the game. Southern had a couple of chances to take the lead again but could not convert, so Alabama St. had the opportunity to hold for a final shot. With just 0.5 seconds left, Waters hit a contested jumper to give his team the lead and victory. He finished the game with 14 points, 6 assists, and 2 steals for the Hornets who remain in a first place tie with Texas Southern atop the SWAC standings. Those two teams will meet on Saturday in a showdown for SWAC supremacy. Southern was led by 11 points from Trelun Banks.

A-Sunny Days, Sweeping the Clouds Away
Wednesday, February 25
North Florida - 76
Florida Gulf Coast - 62

Florida Gulf Coast has only lost 2 A-Sun conference games this season. Unfortunately for them, both of those games came against North Florida. The Ospreys have Dunk City's number winning both games by 16 and 14 points respectively. Wednesday night's loss was FGCU's first loss in their last 11 games and only their 3rd home loss all season. North Florida has won 12 of 14 now, though. The Ospreys got 22 points and 13 rebounds from Beau Beech and 18 points from Jalen Nesbitt to put FGCU away. They can now lock up the number one seed in the A-Sun Tournament with a win over Stetson on Saturday. FGCU should at least take solace in the fact that the two teams may meet again in the A-Sun Championship game with a trip to the NCAA Tournament on the line.  



A-10 Out of 10
Wednesday, February 25
Davidson - 60
Rhode Island - 59
If Rhode Island misses out on the NCAA Tournament this season, they can blame Jack Gibbs. Davidson's Sophomore guard hit a 3-pointer with :13 left to put his Wildcats up by 1 after Rhode Island rallied from being down as many as 12 in the second half. Rhode Island came all the way back and held a 4 point lead with under a minute to play. Tyler Kalinoski made a layup for Davidson and got fouled with :51 seconds left. He hit the free throw to cut the lead to 1. Hassan Martin was fouled for Rhode Island and made 1 of 2 free throws. That set up the Gibbs 3-pointer that would give Davidson the win. The teams are now tied with Dayton and VCU in a 4-way logjam atop the A-10 standings, and their at-large profiles are amazingly similar. The head-to-head win gives Davidson the clear leg-up. Rhode Island still has a chance at a solid win against Dayton and then will need to make a run in the A-10 Tournament. Davidson can perhaps seal a bid with a win against VCU on March 5.

I'm Feeling Very Colonial Today. Powdered Wigs for All!
Wednesday, February 25
UNC-Wilmington - 74
James Madison - 54
UNC-Wilmington will need some help to win the CAA regular season title. The Seahawks lost both of their games against William & Mary with whom they are tied for first. The Tribe would have to lose their regular-season finale against Drexel for UNC-Wilmington to win outright. Still, after Wednesday night's game against James Madison, the Seahawks might be emerging as the team to beat in the crowded Colonial. UNCW never trailed in the game and led by at least 13 points for the last 17 minutes of the game. They were led by Addison Spruill's 18 points and 9 rebounds. The Seahawks end the season against Elon.

Southern Basketballin'
Thursday, February 26
Wofford - 76
Mercer - 72
Another team has claimed their spot in at least the NIT. The Wofford Terriers won the regular season Southern Conference championship on Thursday night by beating Mercer. Spencer Collins had 26 for the Terriers who shot better than 54% on the game. Mercer will be the three seed in the SoCon Tournament, but they will have to get through Wofford at some point if they are going to win that tournament and make the Big Dance. They have played Wofford tough both times they played them, losing by 3 and 4 points respectively, but close will not get them to the NCAA Tournament.

C-USA: From Sea to Shining...Texas
Thursday, February 26
Louisiana Tech - 77
UTEP - 60
In a game that was for first place in C-USA, Louisiana Tech proved they are the better team. The Bulldogs won by 17 and took a one game lead in the loss column. With just two conference games remaining, Louisiana Tech is poised to take the regular season crown. It was a good bounce back game for Louisiana Tech who got crushed by Old Dominion last weekend. LaTech was led by Raheem Appleby and Kenneth Smith who both scored 17 points. Cedrick Lang had 18 points and 10 rebounds for UTEP.

Mid-Major Two Step: Top Dawgs at the Big Dance

Gonzaga Bulldogs

As one of the original bracket busters, Gonzaga now has a seat at the table with the power conferences of college basketball. Mark Few's Bulldogs have made 16 straight NCAA tournaments and have been a top 4 seed in five of those seasons. Gonzaga does not have a signature win this season, but they do have wins over potential tournament teams: Georgia, SMU, St. John’s, and @UCLA. The Bulldogs only loss this season came @Arizona early in the season. The Bulldogs are an offensive juggernaut ranking 1^st in the country in field goal shooting (.527 FG%), 8th in scoring (80 PPG), 9th in assists (17 APG), and 40th in rebounding (38 RPG). Gonzaga currently has a 23 game winning streak. Gonzaga should be guaranteed a 1 or 2 seed.

Northern Iowa Panthers

It has been five years since Northern Iowa's (NIU) last trip to the big dance, but it was quite a memorable one. After losing five straight games in the NCAA tournament, NIU finally broke their losing streak making it into the second round, but the Panthers were not done there. NIU upset #1 ranked Kansas before falling to Michigan St. who would go on to make the Final Four. Here is the scary part: the 2015 Panthers might be better than the 2010 Panthers. NIU beat in-state rival Iowa and reigning MVC champion Wichita St. with ease. The Panthers only losses were a tough road loss to VCU and a slight hiccup to Evansville on the road. NIU is carrying a 16 game winning streak into their rematch with Wichita St, which will decide the MVC regular season championship. Northern Iowa is solidly a 4 seed with the potential to be a 3 seed.

Wichita St Shockers

Gregg Marshall has been nothing short of brilliant since becoming the coach at Wichita St (WSU). In every successive season, Marshall has nearly topped the prior season's achievement.

Season	Record	Achievement
2007-2008	11-20	None
2008-2009	17-17	CBI Second Round
2009-2010	25-10	NIT First Round
2010-2011	29-8	NIT Champions
2011-2012	27-6	NCAA Second Round
2012-2013	30-9	NCAA Final Four
2013-2014	35-1	35-game winning streak, 1 seed
2014-2015	26-3	To be determined

The question is: what will be Wichita St.'s crowning achievement in 2015? So far this season, WSU has lost to Utah, Northern Iowa, and George Washington all in road/neutral games, but the best may still be yet to come for this team. The Shockers leading four scorers (Ron Baker, Fred VanVleet, Darius Carter, and Tekele Cotton) have a great deal of chemistry and experience together making this a dangerous team come tournament time. Wichita St. should be a solid 4 or 5 seed.

Virginia Commonwealth Rams

A string of bad luck has caused Virginia Commonwealth’s (VCU) stock to fall in the last month. VCU was 17-3 with wins over potential tournament teams: @Cincinnati, Davidson, George Washington, Northern Iowa, and @Rhode Island. While facing Richmond at the end of January, VCU’s havoc defense took a major loss when Briante Weber tore his ACL and MCL in the game. Weber was only 12 steals away from being the all-time NCAA career leader in steals. Richmond would go on to win the game setting off a streak of bad luck for VCU. The Rams lost on a buzzer beater @St. Bonaventure and lost in double overtime to LaSalle while losing three of four games. Despite the loss of Weber, this is still a dangerous defensive team. VCU ranks 3rd in the country in turnover margin (+6.7) and 4^th in steals (10 SPG). Although VCU’s seeding has slid somewhat since Weber's injury, they should still solidly be in the tournament as a 5 or 6 seed.

San Diego St. Aztecs

San Diego St. (SDSU) has become a regular representative for mid-major conferences at the big dance. The Aztecs have made five straight NCAA tournaments, but have failed to live up to expectations in three of those seasons losing to lower seeded teams. SDSU is looking to build off of last year's strong performance making it to their second Sweet Sixteen in school history. SDSU has the third best scoring defense in the country, but only the 283rd best scoring offense meaning most of their games are close. The Aztecs have been 1-1 in top tier games defeating Utah by four points, but losing to Arizona by two points. SDSU will likely enter the tournament as a 7 or 8 seed meaning they could face a top tier team in a close game as early as the second round.

Searching for Cinderella: Valparaiso

Valparaiso won one of the most exciting games in NCAA Tournament history. Bryce Drew gave his team the win by orchestrating a perfectly designed play and nailing the jump shot. Valpo went to the Sweet 16 that year before falling to Rhode Island. They were a consistent tournament team in the late 90s and early 00s - they went dancing in 7 of 9 years from 1996 to 2004 - but since their 2004 Tournament loss, they have been to the Big Dance only once - a first round loss to Michigan St. in 2014. So why are we bringing up the Crusaders now? In part because Bryce Drew, the same Bryce Drew who hit the game winning shot in Valpo's biggest game of all time, is now the head coach of his former team and has them heading in the right direction. He is in his fifth year with the Crusaders who have won an average of 22.25 games per year in his four previous seasons. Not that they were struggling before he got there. The Drews have kept Valparaiso relevant for last 25+ years. Bryce's dad was the coach when he played and his brother was the coach for one short season before Bryce himself took over. The team, though, has really flourished under Bryce. They have played in the post-season every year he has been with the school, including that NCAA Tournament appearance in 2014. Valpo certainly has history, but the current squad is about more than just the past.

Valparaiso is 25-4 on the year and 12-2 in Horizon League play heading into tonight's game against Detroit. They have won 12 of 13 games, with the only loss coming by one point on the road against a good Green Bay team. A loss, by the way, that the Crusaders avenged by beating the Phoenix by 4 two weeks ago. They don't have any real marquee wins, but there are several solid ones on the schedule. They throttled Murray St. by 35 in late November and won on the road against Eastern Kentucky. There is also the win over Green Bay and one against Cleveland St. If the wins aren't particularly impressive, the stats will be.

Valpo scores 72.1 points per game, but they're really a defensive-minded team. They are 32nd in Ken Pomeroy's Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rankings. KenPom ranks them 65th overall, in fact. They are also 23rd in the country with 38.5 offensive rebounds per game and 17th in the country with 26.6 defensive rebounds per game. The defensive effort is led by Vashil Fernandez, who averages 2.9 blocks per game, and Tevonn Walker and Keith Carter, who both average 1.3 steals per game. Sophomore Alec Peters leads the team with 17 points per game and 6.7 rebounds per game.

If there is a knock on the Crusaders, it's that they're a young team. They have only 2 seniors on the roster and Fernandez is the only senior who plays meaningful minutes. They do get significant contributions from Juniors Keith Carter and Darien Walker, though.

The NCAA Tournament is so much about the draw you get dealt on Selection Sunday. Given the right draw, Valpo could be making a return trip to the Sweet 16 seventeen years after their now-coach sent them there.

The Week Ahead, February 23-26

No One on the Corner Have SWAC-a Like Us
Monday, February 23, 9:00PM Alabama St. @ Southern
Alabama St. is one of only 2 teams over .500 in the SWAC. Southern has won 10 out of their last 12 games to climb back to .500, though, and they are just one game behind Alabama St. in the loss column. The Hornets are on a winning streak of their own having won 12 of their last 14 games. They are getting ready to face the toughest stretch of their season, though. Away against Southern on Monday and then at home against Texas Southern, who they are tied with in first place, on Saturday. For them, the path to the regular season title is clear - win these two games and then hold their ground. Southern has a clear path as well, though. They host Alabama St. on Monday and then finish the regular season with a game away against Texas Southern. Things are certainly going to be interesting down the stretch in the SWAC.

A-Sunny Days, Sweeping the Clouds Away
Wednesday, February 25, 7:00PM North Florida @ Florida Gulf Coast
Everybody knows Dunk City and rightfully so. The Eagles stormed onto the national stage when they went to the Sweet 16 as a 15 seed 2 seasons ago. FGCU is playing good basketball again this season and would love nothing more than to repeat that performance. The Eagles have won 10 straight games and are in first place in the A-Sun by a game. Their last loss and the team they lead by 1 game in the standings? Both are North Florida. The Ospreys have won 11 of 13, including the win over FGCU. Their only losses during that run both came at the hands of USC Upstate. The first meeting between North Florida and FGCU was won easily by North Florida, 80-64. That was on their home court, though, and FGCU has not lost a game since then. It should be a great matchup that will help determine who will win the A-Sun regular season title.

A-10 Out of 10
Wednesday, February 25, 7:00PM Davidson @ Rhode Island
Bracket Busters might be gone officially, but this game gives us a de facto Bracket Buster-like contest. Rhode Island remains tied for first in the A-10 and have won 8 of 9. Their best nonconference win, though, is over a disappointing Nebraska team. They have an RPI of 64, which puts them firmly on the bubble. This is a good team in search of a signature win. Davidson has won 5 straight and sits a game behind Rhode Island. They also do not have a win to hang their hat on. Their RPI is 54, but the nonconference strength of schedule is atrocious. Rhode Island is on Joe Lunardi's Next Four Out. Davidson is on the First Four Out list. For all their resume similarities, the teams could not be more different. Davidson scores but cannot defend. Rhode Island defends but struggles to score. The game means a lot in the A-10 race, but it means much more to these teams' at-large hopes. The winner gets a solid win. The loser misses out on a golden opportunity. It should be a great game.

  I'm Feeling Very Colonial Today. Powdered Wigs for All!
Wednesday, February 25, 7:00PM James Madison @ UNC-Wilmington
There won't be 4 teams tied for first in the CAA after Wednesday night. James Madison and UNC-Wilmington are 2 of those teams and one of them has to lose. James Madison has gotten hot recently winning 5 in a row to get to this point. UNC-Wilmington, on the other hand, has not won more than 4 games in a row all season. But they also haven't lost back-to-back games since late December and early January. If either team wants to win the regular season title, this game is a must. The loser risks falling from first place into fourth. These late-season, all-or-nothing games are what this blog is all about. This one should be fun.

Southern Basketballin'
Thursday, February 26, 7:00PM Wofford @ Mercer
Mercer cannot catch Wofford for the regular season Southern Conference championship. But they can Chattanooga catch the Terriers. Wofford is a game ahead of the Mocs with just 2 games left to play. Their trip to Mercer is their last real hurdle to a championship. Mercer had their chances as well, but are just 5-4 over their last 9 games including losses to both Chattanooga and Wofford. They are guaranteed no worse than a 3 seed in the Southern Conference Tournament, but a win over the first place Terriers would give the Bears momentum going into it.

C-USA: From Sea to Shining...Texas
Thursday, February 26, 8:00PM UTEP @ Louisiana Tech
These two teams are tied for first place in C-USA in the loss column. LaTech is coming off a shellacking at the hands of Old Dominion over the weekend and will be looking to prove that game a fluke. UTEP has won 7 in a row and is streaking towards the C-USA Tournament. This game against Louisiana Tech is their last real test, and the Miners could very well end up being the number one seed if they win this game. It should be another late-season thriller where both teams put it all on the line. 

Some Clinch, Others Confuse: Weekend Recap (February 20-22)

Look to the Horizon
Friday, February 20
Cleveland St. - 66
Green Bay - 61
Friday night brought an overtime thriller between Cleveland St. and Green Bay. It was a battle for second place in the Horizon League - the winner would stay just a game behind Valparaiso, while the loser would be 2 back with 2 conference games left. The game did not disappoint. It was a back and forth game from the tip. Cleveland St. led by as many as 8 in the first half, but Green Bay fought back and went into the break up by 1. Green Bay led by 6 with 4:30 left, their biggest lead of the game, but were unable to put the game away. Cleveland St. went on an 11-2 run to go ahead 55-52. Green Bay got a basket with a minute left and trailed by just 1. Cleveland St. turned the ball over and then fouled Carrington Love to put him on the line with 30 seconds left and a chance to put his team ahead. He made one of two to tie the game, and Cleveland St. didn't get a shot off at the end of regulation.

Green Bay didn't score in the overtime period until there was just 59 seconds left. At that point, they were down by 3 at 60-57. The teams traded baskets, and then it was time for Green Bay to start fouling. Cleveland St. went 4 for 4 on their free throws down the stretch to put the game away. Trey Lewis and Anton Grady led the scoring for Cleveland St. with 21 and 20 points respectively. Greg Mays added 19 for the Phoenix.

A-10 Out of 10
Saturday, February 21
VCU - 78
UMass - 72
At times during VCU's win on Saturday it looked like the Rams were going to run UMass out of the building. Havoc was running in full force, without Briante Weber no less, and VCU looked like a team that could make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. Give the Minutemen credit, though. They never quit and fought back to within 5 at halftime. They even took the lead in the second half at 48-47. Jordan Burgess hit a 3 on VCU's next possession, though, and UMass never saw the lead again. It was a big shot for Burgess who finished with just 5 points on the day - the same day his brother's number was retired for VCU. The star on this night for the Rams was Treveon Graham who had 24 points and 10 rebounds. UMass played well, but did not get the signature win they needed to sure up their NCAA Tournament resume. They could not overcome 19 turnovers caused by VCU's famed Havoc defense. The Minutemen do not really have any opportunities left on the schedule for a big win, so they will have to settle for no bad losses from here on out. Their next game is against St. Joes. VCU remains in first place in the A-10 and faces a brutal schedule down the stretch. Away against rival Richmond, at home against Dayton, and on the road against Davidson await the Rams. If they are going to win the A-10 regular season, they're going to earn it.

C-USA: From Sea to Shining...Texas
Saturday, February 21
Old Dominion - 72
Louisiana Tech - 53
In our preview of the weekend games we called this matchup one of the most intriguing. Well, able us dumbfounded. Old Dominion thoroughly dominated first place Louisiana Tech on Saturday. They started the game on an 11-0 run, led by 18 at the half, and won by 19. Louisiana Tech shot just 31.6% and scored a season-low 53 points. Their leading scorer had just 10. The Monarchs were led by Trey Freeman's 27 points and 7 rebounds.

Old Dominion has struggled in Conference USA play and had lost 2 games in a row just 10 days ago. But this game showed that the Monarchs are still the cream of the crop in the conference. This looked much more like the team that beat LSU and VCU and much less like the team that lost to UTSA. If this is the Monarch team we're getting down the stretch, the rest of C-USA - and any potential NCAA Tournament opponent - should beware.

James Bond Returns In...Big Skyfall
Saturday, February 21
Northern Arizona - 73
Eastern Washington - 69
The Big Sky race has all of a sudden gotten a whole lot more interesting. Just 10 days ago Eastern Washington took down Sacramento St. in a game that put them up by 2 games in the Big Sky standings. They had just one conference loss in 11 games. In short, they were rolling. Since then, though, they have lost 2 of 3, including Saturday's loss to Northern Arizona. The Eagles are averaging 80.1 points per game but haven't topped 80 since January 31. In fact, in their 6 games since then they have scored 70 or more just half the time. Their latest loss drops Eastern Washington into just a tie for first with Sacramento St. and Montana. The Big Sky, suddenly, is up for grabs. The win puts Northern Arizona just a game back in the loss column and gives them life in the regular season championship race.

Eastern Washington led in the game 69-68 with 3:15 left, but they would not score again in the game as Northern Arizona took control of the game. The Lumberjacks were led by Aaseem Dixon's 23 points, and Eastern Washington was led by 22 points from Tyler Harvey.

Sweet Tea in the Big South
Saturday, February 21
Radford - 75
UNC Asheville - 68
UNC Asheville has lost 4 of 6 and 3 in a row to fall all the way to 6th place in the Big South. Radford, however, will stay just a game out of first place after the win. A win which took considerable effort. Radford led for the entire game, but UNC Asheville rallied and took their first lead of the game at 55-54. The game went back and forth from that point until Radford retook the lead for good with just over 2 minutes left. They were led by Ya Ya Anderson who had 22 points. Radford has 2 winnable games left and stands a decent chance at sneaking into first place before the regular season is up.

Poison Ivy League 
Saturday, February 21
Harvard - 63
Princeton - 55
It was quite an eventful weekend for the Crimson. At the same time that they were trailing Princeton, Yale - tied with Harvard for first in the Ivy League - was trailing Columbia. Dual losses would have been a wash for both teams who still play on March 6. Harvard, however, orchestrated a furious rally to pull closer to the Tigers. Yale could mount no such comeback and would drop their game. Harvard was down by 8 at halftime, 37-29. They finally tied the game with less than 12 minutes to play at 44-44. The game went back and forth until the Crimson surged ahead 57-53 with less than 2 minutes left. Harvard got the comeback win they needed, while Yale did not. The Crimson are now alone in first place and can effectively win the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament when they play Yale in early March.

Crack is WAC
Saturday, February 21
New Mexico St. - 72
Grand Canyon - 55
It will be no worse than the NIT for New Mexico St. as they clinched the regular season WAC title with their win over Grand Canyon on Saturday night. Grand Canyon jumped out to an early 16-6 lead, but it would not hold. New Mexico St. took the lead and kept it, never letting the Antelopes to within 8 points for the rest of the game. The Aggies have won 14 of 15 and are the overwhelming favorite to win the WAC Tournament. If they should slip up, they can at least take solace in the fact that they are guaranteed a spot in the NIT.

West Coast in the Best Coast 
Saturday, February 21
Gonzaga - 70
St. Mary's - 60
The Gaels had to be thinking they had it. They went into halftime up by 11. They led by 10 with 10 minutes to go. They led by 9 with 6:30 to go. This link shows the win probability throughout the game. http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=14324 As you can see, St. Mary's did have it for much of the game. And yet Gonzaga would not quit. The Zags kept coming and kept making runs at St. Mary's until finally the Gaels could hold no longer. Gonzaga took the lead with 1:53 left and would not give it up again. Kyle Wiltjer made 6 of 6 free throws - and grabbed 4 rebounds - in the final 45 seconds of the game to seal the comeback win for Gonzaga, who trailed by as many as 17 points in the game. Wiltjer finished the game with 16 points and 12 rebounds. The win gave Gonzaga the WCC regular season championship, but Gonzaga is hoping for much more this season. They're a probable number one seed in the NCAA Tournament and have hopes of reaching their first ever Final Four. Performances like Saturday, come from behind games against gritty opponents, have to have Mark Few feeling good about their chances.

MAAC Ataack 
Sunday, February 22
Iona - 69
Monmouth - 68
The Gaels got all they could handle from Monmouth on Sunday. They trailed 68-66 with under a minute to play, after trailing by 14 at halftime. A.J. English would not let Iona lose, though. He posted up on Iona's last possession, made his jumper, and drew a foul. He converted the free throw, his 16th point of the game, to put his team ahead. Monmouth couldn't get a bucket on their next possession and time expired. It was the 10th win in a row for Iona who clinched the regular season championship in the MAAC with the win. They will be guaranteed a spot in the NIT, but this is a team who could do damage in the NCAA Tournament if they take care of business and win the MAAC Tournament as well.

I'm Feeling Very Colonial Today. Powdered Wigs for All!
Sunday, February 22
William & Mary - 80
Hofstra - 78
With the game tied and just 3 seconds left, William & Mary's Marcus Thornton was fouled. He would make both of his free throws to give his team an 80-78 advantage. Hofstra had fought hard to tie the game. They were down 77-71 with less than 2 minutes to go. Their rally came up just short, though, and they fell to 9-7 in the conference. William & Mary remains in the four-way tie for first. Their final 2 conference games are against inferior opponents, so the Tribe have as good a hope as any of winning the regular season crown.

The Weekend Ahead, February 20-22

Look to the Horizon
Friday, February 20, 7:00PM Cleveland St. @ Green Bay
Both of these teams are looking up at first place Valparaiso, but they're also both still very much alive in in the regular season race. Cleveland St., for instance, ends their regular season slate with a home game against Valpo. If they get past Green Bay, that game could be for the regular season crown. On paper, Green Bay is the better team. They have 6 losses to Cleveland St.'s 11. They have an RPI of 54 compared to Cleveland St.'s 141. Their best nonconference win is on the road against Miami, whereas Cleveland St.'s best nonconference win is, well, Marshall. I guess? But the game is played on the court, and the last time these two teams met it was a 14 point win for the the Vikings. Green Bay also lost just last week to Valparaiso by 4. Still, those are the only two losses for the Phoenix in their last 9 games. Cleveland St. is also 7-2 in their last 9. Both are stingy defensive teams, allowing less than 62 points per game. Both sometimes struggle to score. It should be an incredibly evenly played game. And it will impact the Horizon League race. Cleveland St. controls it's own destiny. Win out, and they'll win the Horizon League. Green Bay needs some help, but it starts with a win over the Vikings on Friday night.

A-10 Out of 10
Saturday, February 21, 12:00PM UMass @ VCU
UMass is coming off a 16 point loss to Rhode Island and yet still find themselves just a game out of first place. VCU seems to have righted the ship after Briante Weber's injury and have won their past 2 games after losing 3 of 4. Weber's injury has been well documented, but VCU has seemingly adapted. They will continue to be tested down the stretch. They have 5 games remaining, 3 of which are against teams fighting for their tournament lives. VCU is in. There is no doubt about that. But in order to win the regular season A-10 Championship, they are going to need to keep winning. UMass is no sure thing for the tournament, and the only remaining game on their schedule that would give them a signature, quality win is Saturday's matchup with VCU. The Minutemen need this game to not only stay alive in the A-10 race, but also to solidify their at-large resume.

C-USA: From Sea to Shining...Texas
Saturday, February 21, 3:00PM Louisiana Tech @ Old Dominion
This is one of the more intriguing matchups we've had since we started this blog. Louisiana Tech is sitting alone in 1st place in C-USA with just 2 conference losses. They have won 13 of 15 and 4 in a row to get to this point. They're 21-6 overall, but really have no hope of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Old Dominion, on the other hand, looked like a lock for the NCAA Tournament not that long ago. They have very good nonconference wins against LSU and VCU and were at one time even ranked in the top 25. They are just 6-5 in their last 11 games, though, and are in 5th place in C-USA. They're still C-USA's best chance for an at-large bid, but they probably need to win out to make that happen. The toughest test they will face the rest of the way comes on Saturday.

James Bond Returns In...Big Skyfall
Saturday, February 21, 4:05PM Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona
The Eagles followed up their big win over Sacramento St. with a bad loss at home to Portland St. Call it a hangover loss, if you want, but the Eagles struggled again in a win over Southern Utah last week. Their recent performances have given life back to Sacramento St. and Montana who are both a game back of EWU. Northern Arizona is in 4th place and 2 games back, but a win here and a regular season-ending win over Sacramento St. would put the Lumberjacks right in the thick of the Big Sky race. For Eastern Washington, a big game looms ahead against Montana on February 28. It would be unwise for the Eagles to look past Northern Arizona, though.

Sweet Tea in the Big South
Saturday, February 21, 4:30PM Radford @ UNC Asheville
UNC Asheville was in the thick of the Big South race. That was before they lost back-to-back games, including a bad loss to Presbyterian. Now, they're sitting on the fringes and in desperate need of a big win. That win could come against Radford on Saturday. Radford was the hottest team in the Big South winning 8 in a row. They have since gone just 2-2, though, and have fallen out of 1st place. They're just a game behind but need to finish strong if they want a regular season championship. That goal is still attainable for UNC Asheville too, but they will need to start playing better quickly. It starts Saturday.

Poison Ivy League
Saturday, February 21, 7:00PM Princeton @ Harvard
Both teams have games on Friday night as well, but both teams should win those games setting up an important one on Saturday. Princeton is 2 games out of 1st place already and cannot afford to fall further behind. That would effectively end their NCAA Tournament hopes. Harvard, on the other hand, is tied with Yale atop the Ivy League standings and is also in need of the regular season title if they are going to make the NCAA Tournament. A loss puts their fate in Yale's hands - something I'm sure Tommy Amaker's squad is loath to do. If Harvard holds form, we are heading for a March 6 showdown between those two teams that will determine the Ivy League champion and which team will represent that league in the NCAA Tournament.

Crack is WAC
Saturday, February 21, 9:00PM New Mexico St. @ Grand Canyon
There are just a few WAC games remaining for each team, so if Grand Canyon wants to catch New Mexico St., this is a must win. The Antelopes are 2 back in the loss column, so they will need help to win the conference even if they beat the Aggies. A loss, though, hands New Mexico St. the regular season crown. A crown, by the way, they have earned. The Aggies have won 13 of 14 games by an average of 13.5 points, including a 22 point drubbing of Grand Canyon in late January. Their only loss in that stretch was a 6 point road loss against Seattle, which they avenged in impressive fashion by beating the Redhawks by 26 a couple weeks ago. All that is to say, New Mexico St. is playing well. They are the clear favorites to win the WAC, but if anyone is going to give them trouble, it is Grand Canyon. The Antelopes have won 5 of 6 to get themselves into 2nd place with a chance to make some waves in WAC play. They will need a solid game from leading scorer DeWayne Russel if they want to upset the best on this night.

West Coast in the Best Coast
Saturday, February 21, 10:00PM Gonzaga @ St. Mary's
If there is a big game in WCC conference play, it almost assuredly going to be between Gonzaga and St. Mary's. These 2 rivals have defined WCC basketball for years, and this season is no different. Gonzaga, of course, comes into the game as a top-5 team with just 1 loss on the season. They are more than likely going to be a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament and have Final Four aspirations. St. Mary's, as always, is solidly 2nd place in the WCC. They are 14-3 in their last 17 games and have opened up a 2 game lead on 3rd place BYU. Even so, they are a heavy underdog in this one. Gonzaga beat the Gaels by 21 earlier in the season, which is nothing to be ashamed of. Gonzaga is very good. But St. Mary's wants no moral victories in this game. They would love nothing more than to beat their rivals and knock them off the 1-seed line. St. Mary's themselves has an outside shot of making the NCAA Tournament, but because of a weak schedule and lack of quality wins those hopes rest on beating Gonzaga. The crowd will be rocking, but will that be enough to carry the Gaels to victory?

MAAC Ataack
Sunday, February 22, 4:00PM Monmouth @ Iona
Iona has a 3 game lead over Monmouth in the MAAC and a 2 game lead over their closest competitor. At this point, the MAAC is Iona's to lose. If they're going to lose it, Monmouth will have to have something to do with it. The Hawks have won 4 in a row and are looking to set themselves up for a run in the MAAC Tournament.

I'm Feeling Very Colonial Today. Powdered Wigs for All!
Sunday, February 22, 4:30PM William & Mary @ Hofstra
The Tribe have lost 2 in a row and dropped out of 1st place in the CAA. They are just 1 game behind in the loss column, though, so a regular season title is still very much a possibility for them. Hofstra needs a bit more help as they are 2 games behind 1st. They have played well of late winning 4 of 5. They will probably need to win out to have a chance at the CAA crown. William & Mary is the biggest obstacle standing in their way.

Next Week's Games We Have Our Eye On:

• Alabama St. @ Southern, Monday
• Bucknell @ Lehigh, Wednesday
• North Florida @ FGCU, Wednesday
• Davidson @ Rhode Island, Wednesday
• New Hampshire @ Vermont, Wednesday
• James Madison @ UNC-Wilmington, Wednesday
• Evansville @ Northern Iowa, Wednesday
• Wofford @ Mercer, Thursday
• UTEP @ Louisiana Tech, Thursday