Monday, March 2, 2015

Atlantic Sun: Conference Tournament Preview

Begins: March 3
Championship Game: March 8
Television Coverage: ESPN2, ESPN3
Tournament Bracket: http://www.atlanticsun.org/sports/mbkb/championship/2014-15/2015_MBB_Bracket.pdf

Overview:
No conference has seen more shuffling and restructuring during the latest batches of conference realignments than the Atlantic Sun. Eleven teams have left the conference since just 2003, and they have just 2 current members who have been around since 2003 or earlier. Really, it's amazing the A-Sun has even survived. But survival is not what this conference is about. They want to compete - and have succeeded in doing so, despite the revolving door. Everyone knows those success stories. In the 2013 NCAA Tournament, Florida Gulf Coast became the first ever 15 seed to make the Sweet 16. Last year's A-Sun Tournament champion, Mercer, beat Duke in the first round of the NCAA Tournament as a 14 seed. Atlantic Sun teams are not afraid of anyone, and they've proven they don't need to be. Will this year's champion pull off another tournament upset? You might not want to bet against them.

Favorite to Win: North Florida (20-11, 12-2)

Dunk City might be the team that everyone associates with the A-Sun, but the favorite to win this conference tournament are the Ospreys of North Florida. They have won 13 of their last 15 games and are the number 1 seed, but that's not why they're the favorite. They're the favorite because, quite simply, they can beat Florida Gulf Coast. The Ospreys beat FGCU is both meetings this season by an average of 15 points. They have handled the Eagles in a way that nobody else in the A-Sun has been able to do this season. And when you have the number of your biggest competition, it makes you the favorite to win.

Most Likely to Upset Favorite: Florida Gulf Coast (29-9, 11-3)

But because Florida Gulf Coast lost both matchups to North Florida, they're going to be hungrier than ever to beat the Ospreys. Dunk City is the number 2 seed and the most likely team to knock off the regular season champs. FGCU has had a great year. They only had 2 conferences losses before a meaningless regular season finale against Jacksonville and both of those came to North Florida. Which means they ran through the rest of their A-Sun schedule. If North Florida and FGCU meet in the A-Sun title game, it will be a fun one to watch. Here's hoping that happens and we get another installment of this budding rivalry.

Dark Horse to Win: USC Upstate (21-10, 8-6)

So who is waiting in the wings to ruin the hope of another Osprey/Dunk City title bout? That would be USC Upstate. The Spartans are 21-10 on the season and 8-6 in A-Sun play. More importantly, they're the only A-Sun team who has beaten North Florida this season. They beat the Ospreys by 5 on the road in late January and followed that up with an impressive 17 point victory over North Florida at home two weeks ago. Every team in the conference is going to be watching game tape from those two games to try to figure out how the Spartans beat North Florida, but if you're picking a team to upset the 1 seed, you should go with the proven commodity. USC Upstate can beat North Florida.

Expected Tournament Bid(s): Conference Tournament Winner

Despite all their past NCAA Tournament successes, this is a one-bid league. The tournament champion will be the representative in the Big Dance, and everyone else will be looking for other post-season spots. Don't be surprised to see a couple teams in the NIT, CBI, or CIT, but there will only be one A-Sun team in the NCAA Tournament.

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