How to Seed a Mid-Major…Usually Not Very Well

The mid-majors generally do not get much love from the Selection Committee on Selection Sunday. From strong mid-majors being under-seeded to quality mid-majors being left out of the tournament for mediocre power conference teams, it can be a rough day for mid-major programs that had a great season despite the odds of being in a mid-major conference.

Let us start with who got snubbed. Colorado St. and Temple both deserved in the field and not even in the First Four games. Here is how their two resumes stacked up:

Team	Record	NCSOS	Road/Neutral	Last 12	Top 100 Record	Wins Against Tourney Teams
Colorado St.	27-6	76	12-5	9-3	5-5	Four
Temple	23-10	48	9-8	9-3	8-8	Two

Both teams challenged themselves in their non-conference schedule and played in conferences with multiple NCAA tournament teams. Both teams had quality wins with Temple having one of the most convincing wins of any team all year: a 25 point destruction of 2 seeded Kansas. Every year, quality teams like Colorado St. and Temple get left out for teams from power conferences with many losses even for a team playing in a tougher conference. This season Indiana, North Carolina St., Oklahoma St., Texas, and UCLA all had 13 losses, but safely made it into the NCAA tournament even avoiding the First Four games. There are always things that these mid-majors could do to better state their case like avoiding bad losses, but for the most part the selection committee will look to a bigger name over a better resume when it puts a power conference team next to a mid-major conference team.

Now let us look at some of the mid-major teams that got under-seeded by the Selection Committee. The Missouri Valley Conference’s two representatives, Northern Iowa and Wichita St., were two of the teams most slighted by the Selection Committee. Northern Iowa received a 5 seed despite RPI suggesting a 4 seed along with BPI and KenPom suggesting a 3 seed. Everyone who picks a bracket each year knows how tough it is to get out of the first round as a 5 seed. Northern Iowa defeated three tournament teams while going 30-3 including an 8-2 record against the RPI Top 100. Wichita St. received a 7 seed despite RPI suggesting a 5 seed along with BPI and KenPom suggesting a 4 seed. Wichita St. defeated two tournament teams while going 28-4 including a 7-4 record against the RPI Top 100. Wichita St. has been here before being an under-seeded 9 seed while making a Final Four run.

The final two teams to get a bad seed from the Selection Committee were Dayton and Brigham Young who were considered two of the last four teams in the tournament forcing them to play in the First Four games. Dayton defeated two tournament teams while going 25-8 including 7 wins against the RPI Top 100. Dayton received an 11 seed despite RPI and BPI suggesting an 8 seed along with KenPom suggesting a 10 seed. Brigham Young defeated two tournament teams while going 25-9 including a 4 wins against the RPI Top 100. Brigham Young received an 11 seed despite BPI and KenPom suggesting an 8 seed along with RPI suggesting a 9 seed. Both teams should have easily avoided the First Four games in Dayton.

While rankings systems tend to have their flaws, it is hard to overlook the under-seeding of these fours teams. Based on the average seedings from the RPI, BPI, and KenPom ranking systems, Northern Iowa was seeded below six teams that it should have been seeded above. Similarly, Wichita St. was seeded below 11 teams, Dayton was seeded below eight teams, and Brigham Young was seeded below 10 teams that they should have been seeded above. These low seeds usually provide a spark for the mid-majors to prove themselves in the tournament. Last season, Dayton overcame a 10 seed to make it to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2011, Virginia Commonwealth came out of the First Four games to make an Elite Eight run. Unfortunately for teams like Colorado St. and Temple, there is no chance for them to prove themselves since the Selection Committee left them out, but their season is not over. Wichita St. was left out of the tournament in 2011 despite a worthy at-large bid. The Shockers won the NIT Championship proving the Selection Committee wrong and continued to do so by making the NCAA Final Four in 2013. The best thing for mid-majors to do is to keep fighting. It took Gonzaga and Butler many years, but they are now considered regulars with the power conferences.