Mid-Majors and the Art of the 12 vs. 5 Upset

Every sports analyst and article giving pointers on picking a bracket will tell you a few certainties:

(1) Do not pick a 16 seed to upset a 1 seed. The 16 seeds are 0-120 since 1985.

(2) Do not pick all four 1 seeds in the Final Four. Only six have made the Final Four in the last six years.

(3) Pick 12 vs. 5 upsets. Pick lots of them!

12 seeds upsetting 5 seeds have become so likely in the past few years that the 12 seeds may be the favorites over 5 seeds now. In the last three years, the 12 seeds are 8-4 against the 5 seeds. There is no scientific reasoning for this phenomenon, but here is a look at why these upsets tend to happen so often.

Let us take a look at the 5 seeds first. Generally, the 5 seeds are the third tier of power conference teams who struggled somewhat during the season and usually play fairly inconsistently. Arkansas was the second best team in the SEC, but there was a big drop from one to two. The rest of the SEC is far behind Kentucky and has been one of the weaker power conferences over the past few years. Arkansas went only 13-5 in conference and struggles on the road going 4-4 against RPI Top 100 teams. The Razorbacks limped into the NCAA tournament finishing 3-3.  The Pac12 was a similar conference to the SEC. After Arizona at the top, there was a big drop-off. Utah went 13-5 in conference and struggled on the road going 1-4 against RPI Top 100 teams. The Utes limped into the tournament finishing 3-4. The Big12 was a stronger conference than the SEC and Pac12 this year, but seemed to be overrated at times. West Virginia went 11-7 in conference and struggled on the road going 2-5 against RPI Top 100 teams. The Mountaineers limped into the NCAA tournament finishing 1-3. Northern Iowa is the exception to these teams as the Panthers finished 30-3 and won the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. However, the mid-major 5 seed vs. 12 seed has also provided some upsets recently. 12 seeded Stephen F. Austin upset 5 seeded Virginia Commonwealth last season and 12 seeded Virginia Commonwealth upset 5 seeded Wichita St. in 2012. The bottom line is that the 5 seeds tend to be very vulnerable teams going into the NCAA tournament.

Now here is a look at the 12 seeds. In most seasons, the 11 seeds are the final at-large teams into the field of 68. This means that the 12 seeds are usually the second tier of mid-major automatic qualifiers. These 12 seeds are often under-seeded as well. Three of this year's 12 seeds (Buffalo, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford) were all under-seeded according to their RPI's. These teams come in with a lot of talent and a lot to prove. Buffalo is an up and coming team out of the Mid American Conference. The Bulls played Kentucky and Wisconsin on the road. While both resulted in double digit losses, Buffalo played each team tough. The Bulls are a good scoring and rebounding team. Buffalo only turns the ball over 11 times a game meaning they should be able to handle West Virginia's press. Stephen F. Austin has taken over the Southland Conference the last few years. The Lumberjacks started 1-3 this season, but finished 28-1. Stephen F. Austin is a good scoring, passing, and efficient team. The Lumberjacks played spoiler last year as one of the three 12 seeds to upset a 5 seed. Wofford challenged themselves in their non-conference schedule going 10-4 against the 26th toughest non-conference strength of schedule. The Terriers defeated fellow tournament team North Carolina St. on the road. Wyoming has already played spoiler this postseason. The Cowboys won the Mountain West Conference stealing an NCAA tournament bid from a bubble team. Wyoming finished the season 25-9 going 11-7 in a tough Mountain West Conference. The Cowboys are 4-2 against NCAA tournament teams and have the 8th best scoring defense in the country. All four of these 12 seeds will be tough outs in the tournament.

While your bracket will not be broken by failing to pick the 12 seed upsets over the 5 seeds, it will certainly make you look better at the water cooler tomorrow morning when you can brag about all of the upsets that you called. The NCAA tournament starts later today and the 5 seeds should be plenty worried. The 12 seeds have recent history on their side and they are all ready to prove that they belong.