Mid-Majors and the Art of Bid Thievery

In March, you hear the term "bubble" mentioned quite often. Every year, many of the teams sitting on the bubble are mid-majors. This can be a very stressful time for these teams if they fall short in their conference tournament leaving it up to the Selection Committee to critique their season down to each individual game. Just ask Murray St. and Iona, two teams who dominated their conferences regular seasons only to lose in the conference tournament. They are both sitting firmly on the bubble. One bad loss could be the difference between the committee seeing them as an NCAA Tournament team or an NIT team. The Selection Committee is not the only body that these bubble mid-majors have to worry about, though. Almost every year, there are 1-3 bid thieves that get hot at the right time and win their conference tournament over a team that was already guaranteed an at-large bid, effectively shrinking the bubble by one.

We have already seen one potential bid thief this year. Illinois St. upset Wichita St. in the Missouri Valley Conference semifinals and had an 18 point lead on Northern Iowa in the finals. The Panthers stormed back to win keeping the bubble intact for now. And with Gonzaga and Brigham Young making the West Coast Conference finals, that prevents another potential bid stealer as BYU has likely locked up an at-large bid by making the finals. Rest easy, bubble teams. At least for now.

The Atlantic 10 tournament features three likely at-large teams (Davidson, Dayton, Virginia Commonwealth), but teams like Richmond and Rhode Island who are currently on the wrong side of the bubble could take away a spot from another mid-major by winning the Atlantic 10 Conference tournament. If anyone other than Boise St., Colorado St., or San Diego St. in the Mountain West Conference can win their tournament, it would decrease the bubble by another spot. And that's not even mentioning the so-called Power Conferences. What if Pitt gets hot and wins the ACC Tournament? What if Seton Hall finds their way and starts winning again at the right time? The bubble shrinks, that's what. And the Racers and Gaels sweat a little bit more.

Old Dominion, Richmond, and Stephen F. Austin cannot focus on the bid thieves and the bubble right now. With their conference tournaments starting tomorrow, they can determine their own fate by winning their conference tournaments and getting the automatic bid. If they fall short, they will join Iona and Murray St. squarely on the bubble and at the whims of potential bid thieves and the Selection Committee.