Conference USA: Conference Tournament Preview

Begins: March 11
Championship Game: March 14
Television Coverage: ASN, CBSSN, FS1
Tournament Bracket: http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/c-usa/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2014-15/misc_non_event/c-usa-mbb-updated-bracket.pdf


Overview:

It has been an interesting year in Conference USA. Old Dominion dominated their non-conference schedule and boasts wins over VCU and LSU, two likely tournament teams. They were even ranked in the top 25 at one point. They stumbled in conference play, though, and a one time lock for an at-large big now looks questionable. Louisiana Tech is the team who played the most consistently in C-USA games, losing just 3 times. One of those losses was a nearly 20 point drubbing at the hands of Old Dominion, though. These two are the clear favorites, but other quality teams are lurking just behind them.

Favorite to Win Tournament: Old Dominion (24-6, 13-5)

The Monarchs are actually the 3 seed in the C-USA Tournament, but they have established themselves as the clear favorite. Definitely C-USA's best team in the non-conference, ODU seems to have figured out whatever problems plagued them early on in conference play. Since starting C-USA at 7-5, they have won 6 in a row by an average of almost 18 points per game. The Achilles heel for this team appears to be winning on the road. All 5 of their conference losses are away from home. Working in their favor? The Conference USA Tournament host, UAB, is on the opposite side of the bracket. The Monarchs wouldn't face a true road environment until the final.

Most Likely to Upset Favorite: Louisiana Tech (24-7, 15-3)

LaTech has been the most consistent team in Conference USA this season. They have wins over each of the top 5 seeds in conference play - except for Old Dominion. The Bulldogs had a golden opportunity to prove they were the team to beat in Conference USA when they traveled to Old Dominion in late February. Instead, they came away from that game licking their wounds. ODU dominated from the tip. Still, Louisiana Tech rallied and won their last three in impressive fashion. Can they get by Old Dominion and secure an NCAA Tournament bid? It remains to be seen. But if anyone is going to, it's probably the Bulldogs.

Dark Horse to Win Tournament: UTEP (21-9, 13-5)

The Miners come in as the 2 seed, so it's almost not fair to pick them as a dark horse. They have gotten lost in the shuffle a bit, though, and would not be considered one of the front runners in this tournament. The draw works in their advantage, though. They are 5-0 against the other teams in their half of the bracket, meaning they wouldn't play a team they have lost to until the finals. They would likely have to figure out a way to beat Louisiana Tech if they made it that far, a team they lost to convincingly in both games this season. Still, anything can happen in a championship game, and the Miners would not be lacking for motivation.

Expected Tournament Bid(s): Old Dominion, Conference Tournament Champion

Old Dominion may not be an "expected" tournament team, but they are certainly on the bubble. The Monarchs have the aforementioned non-conference wins over VCU and LSU. They have a respectable RPI of 36 and decent strength of schedule numbers. Still, they finished just 13-5 in a not weak but not great Conference USA. Their recent 6 game winning streak has put them right back in the conversation, but an exit before the championship game would almost certainly eliminate them. In fact, they might not make it to the tournament unless they win the C-USA championship. Those decisions are for the committee to make, of course, and thank goodness for that. We're not sure what to do with the Monarchs at this point.