Begins: March 11
Championship Game: March 15
Television Coverage: NBCSN, CBSSN, CBS
Tournament Bracket: http://www.atlantic10.com/fls/31600/pdfs/2015_MBB_Bracket.pdf?CONTENT_ID=980985&DB_OEM_ID=31600
Overview:
Perennial A-10 favorite VCU started the season and conference play just the way you would have expected. They have non-conference wins over Oregon, Northern Iowa, and Cincinnati. They started conference play 7-0 and were ranked in the top 25. Since then they are just 5-6 and have fallen out of the top 25. Worse than that, they have fallen to 5th place in the league and missed out on the double bye in the conference tournament. They are playing without Briante Weber, but he isn't coming back, so the Rams need to figure out how to play without him or they will be facing a tough first round opponent in the NCAA Tournament. Davidson, on the other hand, had a fine non-conference, but that's because they didn't play anybody of note. Or, better said, they didn't beat anybody of note. They lost to North Carolina and Virginia. They got off to a rocky start in conference play too. They were 5-4 after a loss to St. Bonaventure on February 4. They haven't lost a game since. They have won 9 in a row and are starting to really groove at the right time.
Favorite to Win Tournament: Davidson (23-6, 14-4)
Not only has Davidson won 9 straight, but they have won them impressively. During this win streak their average margin of victory is nearly 15 points. They are averaging better than 81 points per game. And, perhaps most impressively, they are holding their opponents to 65 points per game, a full 3 points better than their season average. Long story short, this team is rolling. They have rolled themselves right into the bubble conversation, in fact. The RPI is a great 29, but the strength of schedule numbers are atrocious. They are still on the fringe at this point, but that might not matter. They may just go ahead and win the A-10 Tournament to take any question away.
Most Likely to Upset Favorite: Dayton (23-7, 13-5)
Dayton would have probably been the pick to win the A-10 if not for a couple of bad losses down the stretch. The Flyers have beaten VCU and Rhode Island recently, but they also have losses to Duquesne and LaSalle. Losing games you should win is a recipe for getting upset in the conference tournament, which is why we just can't pick the Flyers as anything more than an upset team. Still, they are very good and a likely NCAA Tournament team. The fact that we have picked them as the most likely team to upset Davidson speaks volumes considering the two teams wouldn't meet until the finals. We like Dayton. But they also scare us.
Dark Horse to Win Tournament: Richmond (19-12, 12-6)
Richmond was dead in the water. They were 7-6 in the non-conference. They followed that up by starting conference play 6-6. This was a .500 basketball team. No better. And then something happened. They beat St. Bonaventure and George Washington. They took down crosstown rivals VCU for the second time. All told, they ended the regular season on a 6 game winning streak. Even better for the Spiders? They earned the 4 seed in the A-10 Tournament meaning they get a double bye. Their first opponent will likely be VCU, a team the Spiders have already beaten twice. Momentum is a funny thing, and Richmond has it. Don't count out the Spiders as a bid stealer who could go all the way in the A-10 Tournament.
Expected Tournament Bid(s): Davidson, Dayton, VCU, Richmond
The first 3 teams here should feel relatively safe. Barring an early exit from the A-10 Tournament all are going dancing. All are projected 7-10 seeds. Richmond is an interesting case. As mentioned, the Spiders were playing .500 basketball not that long ago. They have caught fire recently, though, and a run to the A-10 Tournament final might give them the quality wins they need to get an at-large. It will be close, though. To feel totally safe, the Spiders will want to just win the whole thing.
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