Southland: Conference Tournament Preview

Tournament Begins: March 11

Conference Championship: March 14
Television Coverage: SLC Digital, ESPN3, ESPN2
Tournament Bracket: http://southland.org/documents/2015/3/8/2015_MBB_Bracket.pdf

Overview:

The Southland Conference is currently going through an up and down transition period. Three teams (Central Arkansas, Houston Baptist, and Lamar) are currently ineligible for postseason play due to APR penalties. Southland has two teams (Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word) transitioning into Division I that are also ineligible for postseason play. Despite those five teams being ineligible, the conference still had four strong teams this season. There have been five different Southland tournament champions in the last five seasons. Stephen F. Austin will look to break that streak as the favorite and defending champion. Here is a look at three candidates to win this season’s Southland tournament.

Favorite to Win Tournament: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (27-4, 17-1)

Stephen F. Austin (SFA) has been the best team in Southland for the past three seasons. The Lumberjacks are 54-4 against other Southland teams. SFA has a double bye into the semifinals and will look to make their third straight tournament final. The Lumberjacks went 27-4 this season with wins over Memphis and Long Beach St., but still remain a bubble team with 20 of those wins coming against the RPI Sub 150. SFA may need to win the conference tournament to get into the NCAA tournament. The Lumberjacks were 5-1 against the other top three teams in the league with the lone loss coming @Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. SFA will look to avenge that loss as it broke their 30-game winning streak against Southland teams. The Lumberjacks will be the favorite to win the conference tournament and should be playing inspired to remain off the bubble.

Most Likely to Upset Favorite: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders (18-12, 13-5)

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (TAMCC) did something that no other Southland Conference team has been able to do since March 16, 2013. The Islanders beat the mighty SFA Lumberjacks. It was a long road this season to get to that point for TAMCC. The Islanders started 4-7 with six of those losses coming against the RPI Sub 150. TAMCC started to figure things out at the start of conference play going 7-1 before hitting a rough patch against four of the better teams in the league going 1-3 during that stretch. Since mid-February, the Islanders have been the best team in Southland going 6-1 including wins over the top two teams, SFA and Sam Houston St. If TAMCC can keep up this hot streak, the Islanders could be back into the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2007.

Dark Horse to Win Tournament: Northwestern St. Demons (18-11, 13-5)

Northwestern St. boasts the highest scoring offense in all of Division I at 83.9 points per game. The Demons also lead Southland in three point field goals made per game and free throw percentage. Northwestern St. has two outstanding scorers in Zikiteran Woodley and Jalan West who average 22.4 and 19.2 points per game, respectively. Woodley leads the Southland in scoring and West is ranked third. Northwestern St. has proven that they can score, but the Demons have not been able to beat the top three teams in the conference going 0-4 against them. If Northwestern St. wants to win the Southland tournament, the Demons will need to find a way to finally take down the big three with their powerful offense.

Expected Tournament Bid(s): Conference Tournament Winner

Stephen F. Austin has a strong resume and is currently on the bubble. The Lumberjacks could be on the wrong side of the bubble though due to a 170th ranked non-conference strength of schedule and lack of a quality win. Stephen F. Austin may need to win the conference tournament to get into the NCAA tournament, but could potentially be a 12 seed in the tournament as they were last year which resulted in an upset of 5th seeded Virginia Commonwealth. For the rest of the Southland Conference, those teams will likely be a 15 or 16 seed and have a very tough first round matchup if they win the Southland Conference tournament.