Sunday, March 8, 2015

Murray St. Racers: March Madness Mid-Major Heartbreak

We see this story played out every year in college basketball during March. A mid-major team cruises through their conference schedule undefeated or with one loss and boasts 25+ wins going into their conference tournament. Due to a weaker schedule than other teams, this mid-major team knows that the only option to make it to the big dance is to win their conference tournament. When they get upset, it is heartbreaking for those players knowing that they will not get to play in the NCAA tournament after such a strong season.

Murray St. is the first mid-major heartbreak of this March and possibly not the only one. Albany (15-1 in American East), North Carolina Central (16-0 in MEAC), Stephen F. Austin (17-1 in Southland), and New Mexico St. (13-1 in WAC) will all need to win their conference tournaments despite strong conference records. None of these five teams has the resume for an at-large bid, but Murray St. does have a long shot at making the NCAA tournament. The Racers finished 27-5 including a 25 game win streak. Murray St. went 11-1 in their last 12 games with a 13-4 record on the road. That is the good, but the bad is, well, pretty bad. Here's a look at what will inevitably keep Murray St. out of the NCAA tournament:
(1) 231 non-conference strength of schedule
(2) 1-2 record against the RPI Top 100 (defeated #68 Illinois St)
(3) 4-4 record against the RPI Top 150
(4) 21-1 record against RPI Sub 150 (lost to #248 Houston)
(5) 2-0 record against non-Division I schools
The bottom line is that Murray St. did not challenge themselves enough. The Racers did not play a single team from a power conference and played 24 of their 32 games against RPI Sub 150 teams. Some of this is out of Murray St.'s control as the Ohio Valley Conference was only the 23rd best conference meaning that the Racers had a limited amount of chances to get quality wins within conference play. If Murray St. or other mid-major schools want to improve their resume, they have to start challenging themselves more during non-conference play on the road and against power conferences. You may lose all of those games, but the committee will value you better for taking chances. With limited chances to get quality wins in conference play, this is the only way to get the coveted quality wins that are so desired by analysts and the selection committee.

Murray St. will get an invitation to the NIT as their regular season conference champion. While the NIT is not as prestigious as it used to be, the postseason tournament can be a great place to build for the future. Last season, Southern Methodist made the NIT championship and followed that up with a 23-6 record this season and ranking in the top 25. Southern Methodist will make the NCAA tournament for the first time in 23 years. In 2011, Wichita St. won the NIT and has continued to build off the success of that championship. In the following three seasons the Shockers made the NCAA tournament, then the Final Four, and finally went into the NCAA tournament undefeated as a 1 seed last season. This season, Wichita St. will get an at-large bid for their fourth consecutive NCAA tournament appearance.

While this was the last chance for the three Murray St. seniors to make it to the NCAA tournament, this could be the beginning of something special for the remaining 10 Racers and incoming freshman. The NCAA tournament could be as close as next season and a Final Four could be as close as two seasons away as Wichita St. proved. March Madness provides for some amazing moments, but is also host to some tough heartbreaks. This March's first case of heartbreak goes to the Murray St. Racers.

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