Monday, March 9, 2015

Mid-American: Conference Tournament Preview

Begins: March 9
Championship Game: March 14
Television Coverage: ESPN2

Overview:

There is no runaway favorite to win the MAC Tournament this season. No team has less than 6 conference losses, and there are 6 teams with between 6 and 8 conference losses. The way the tournament is set up, the top 2 seeds get dramatic advantages in the way of triple byes. Those top 2 seeds went to Central Michigan and Buffalo who will both only need to win 2 games to garner the MAC's automatic bid. The team most punished? Bowling Green. The Falcons finished just 1 game behind Buffalo in the MAC East standings, but they ended up with the 5 seed in the tournament. No bye. They will need to win 5 games to get to the Big Dance. The regular season finale between Buffalo and Bowling Green made just that much difference for the victorious Bulls. 

Favorite to Win Tournament: Buffalo (21-9, 12-6)

Buffalo is the number 2 seed in this tournament, but they are the hottest team in the MAC right now. They have won 6 straight, including 2 huge wins over Bowling Green, one over Akron, and one over Kent St. They have also faced quality opponents in their non conference slate. They held their own for a time against Kentucky and Wisconsin both, although they did lose those games. They're led by the two-headed beast of Justin Moss and Shannon Evans. This duo is tearing up the MAC. Moss averages 18.4 points and 9.3 rebounds per game and is shooting nearly 53% from the field. Evans averages 15.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game while playing nearly 34.4 minutes. They have been tough to stop for other teams this season in MAC play, and if Buffalo is going to go dancing for the first time in school history.

Most Likely to Upset Favorite: Central Michigan (22-7, 12-6)

CMU has stumbled a bit down the stretch. They have lost 2 of 3 entering the MAC Tournament. Still, they are the tournament's number 1 seed, and, as mentioned, the construction of the MAC Tournament gives a distinct advantage to the 1 and 2 seeds. Hence the pick of Central Michigan as the most likely team to take down the Bulls. Also helpful for the Chippewas is the fact that they swept the season series with Buffalo and with Toledo, their most likely opponent in the semifinals. 

Dark Horse to Win Tournament: Northern Illinois (14-15, 8-10)

This is, admittedly, quite a dark horse. The Huskies have three separate losing streaks of three games during the season. Their best non-conference win is probably Idaho. They're under .500 in conference and overall. How, then, can we possibly think they may win the MAC Tournament? It's all because of their last 4 games. They are 4-0 in those games and have beaten number 4 seed Toledo, number 1 seed Central Michigan, and number 6 seed Western Michigan. In short, they're winning games down the stretch that they haven't won all season. They are trending in the right direction. Will it be enough for them to go all the way? It's a long shot - but not nearly as improbable as it once seemed.

Expected Tournament Bid(s): Conference Tournament Champion

The MAC is a one-bid league this season. The conference does not have a dominant team who is a potential at-large, in large part because they have beaten themselves up in conference play. Even if one team had dominated conference play, they would likely be a fringe bubble team at best. This is a one bid league this season, so the best anyone can hope for if they don't win is the NIT.

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