Southwestern Athletic: Conference Tournament Preview

Begins: March 10

Championship Game: March 14
Television Coverage: ESPN3, ESPNU
Tournament Bracket: http://swachoops.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015-Basketball-Tournament-Brackets.pdf

Overview:

The 2014-2015 season will likely be one that the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) will look to forget. The SWAC ranked worst in conference RPI and winning percentage against other conferences going only 12-98. The SWAC went 2-38 against the RPI Top 100. Six of the teams rank in the bottom 50 of the RPI and nine of the teams rank in the bottom 100. Only two teams had winning records against Division I teams. Two of the teams (Alabama St. and Southern) are ineligible for postseason tournaments. The beauty of March is that the winner of the SWAC tournament will still get a chance to pull off a huge upset in the NCAA tournament. Here's a look at three of the teams that may get that chance to make history.

Favorite to Win Tournament: Texas Southern Tigers (19-12, 16-2)

Although the SWAC had a rough year overall, Texas Southern had a quality season. The Tigers upset Michigan St. and Kansas St. on the road. Texas Southern cruised through SWAC play going 16-2. The Tigers only two conference losses were to Prairie View and @Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Texas Southern might be a border line bubble team if you take away those two bad losses as well as questionable losses to @Auburn and @Norfolk St. The Tigers had the 14th toughest non-conference strength of schedule playing 10 RPI Top 100 teams. Texas Southern is 4-0 against the other top two seeds, Alabama St. and Southern. The Tigers should be the favorite to win the SWAC tournament if they can avoid another bad loss.

Most Likely to Upset Favorite: Alabama St. Hornets (18-9, 14-4)

Alabama St. is ineligible for the NCAA tournament due to APR penalties, but the Hornets still get to play in the SWAC tournament and should have a good chance to win it. Despite failing to beat the favorite Texas Southern, Alabama St. went 3-1 against the next two best teams, Southern and Prairie View. The Hornets have the highest scoring offense (71.5 PPG) in the SWAC and the best road/neutral record at 9-6. While Alabama St. may not get to play in the NCAA tournament, winning the SWAC tournament could be a positive note for the program going forward.

Dark Horse to Win Tournament: Prairie View Panthers (14-17, 12-6)

Prairie View had a rough start to the season going 2-14 against a challenging non-conference schedule. The Panthers turned it around in the second half of the season going 12-3. Prairie View was the only team in the SWAC to beat the top two seeds, Texas Southern and Alabama St. If the Panthers can stay hot, Prairie View has the best chance to unseat defending champion Texas Southern and make their first NCAA tournament since 1998.

Expected Tournament Bid(s): Conference Tournament Winner

Despite Texas Southern's accomplishments this season, their conference strength of schedule will hurt their chances to avoid a 16 seed if the Tigers win the SWAC tournament. Thus, whoever wins the SWAC tournament will likely be a 16 seed and have a rough test ahead of them.