NIT Final Preview

Schedule:
Tuesday, March 31, 7:00PM - Semifinal #1: (2) Miami (FL) vs. (1) Temple
Tuesday, March 31, 9:00PM - Semifinal #2: (2) Stanford vs. (1) Old Dominion
Thursday, April 2, 9:00PM - NIT Final: (2) Miami (FL) vs. (2) Stanford

Television Coverage:
All games will be broadcast on ESPN.

Road to the Semifinals:

• Miami (FL) beat North Carolina Central (75-71), Alabama (73-66), Richmond (63-61), Temple (60-57)
• Stanford beat UC Davis (77-64), Rhode Island (74-65), Vanderbilt (78-75), Old Dominion (67-60)

Overview:
Of course nobody wants to fall short of the NCAA Tournament, but the teams who have made their way to Madison Square Garden for the NIT Finals have embraced this tournament and are playing to prove they deserved a bid to the Big Dance. The number one seeds for the NIT are the First Four Out, the first four team who missed out on NCAA Tournament bids. Two of the final four in the NIT were those number one seeds, Temple and Old Dominion. Temple played Miami (FL), and Old Dominion played Stanford.

The Hurricanes are coming in to the championship game having won 7 of 8. Their only loss in that stretch was a 7 point loss to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament. The Canes are definitely capable of winning big games - they beat Duke in Cameron Indoor Stadium this year. They're also capable of losing games they shouldn't lose - They lost to Green Bay, Eastern Kentucky, and Georgia Tech all at home. If they're playing well, watch out. They can beat anyone. If they aren't, they can lose on any given night. They haven't had an off night in quite some time, though, so Stanford ought to be prepared for a fight.

The Stanford Cardinal were a surefire NCAA Tournament team for a large part of the season. Then they went into a tailspin. They lost 8 out of 12 games to fall totally out of the bubble picture. They have rallied now, though, winning 4 solid games to make it to the championship game in Madison Square Garden. If they can make it five, they will end their season on Thursday night with a title.

Final Four Team Preview: Wisconsin

Wisconsin Badgers, 35-3

• Conference: Big Ten
• Seed: 1
• Leading Scorer: Frank Kaminsky (18.2 points per game)
• Path to the Final Four:
• Round 1 - Defeated Coastal Carolina, 86-72
• Round of 32 - Defeated Oregon, 72-65
• Sweet 16 - Defeated North Carolina, 79-72
• Elite 8 - Defeated Arizona, 85-78

The Wisconsin Badgers have had a strange ride back to the Final Four. Last season, they defeated Oregon in the Round of 32 and Arizona in the Elite 8 to set up a game against Kentucky in the Final Four. This year, they beat Oregon in the Round of 32 and Arizona in the Elite 8 to set up a game against Kentucky in the Final Four. If that felt like deja vu to you, just think how Bo Ryan must feel. He and the Badgers are hoping things go differently this year in the Final Four, though. Last year, they came up just short, losing 74-73. If they're going to win this time around, they will need to play a near-perfect game. If anyone is capable, it's Wisconsin.

When fully healthy, the Badgers have lost just twice all season (they lost to Rutgers without Frank Kaminsky). A home loss on December 3 to Duke and a road loss against Maryland on February 24. How have they been so successful? By playing stellar defense and not turning the ball over. Wisconsin averages just 7 turnovers a game and gives up less than 58 points per game. Ryan would take offense if you suggested his team couldn't score, though. In their NCAA Tournament games, Wisconsin is averaging 80.5 points per game. They will most likely not be scoring that many points against Kentucky, but they're comfortable playing in lower scoring games as well. They won't be frustrated if they can't score with ease. They have won grind-it-out types of games all season. Wisconsin beat Marquette scoring just 49 points. They beat Penn St. by scoring just 55. If the Badgers beat Kentucky and advance to the national championship game, expect to see two very different types of games. It will be a low-scoring game against Kentucky and the Badgers will then put up points against either Duke or Michigan St. They are capable of winning either type of game.

So how do you beat them? There may not be a single strategy to beat the Badgers. They play fundamentally sound and are efficient on both offense and defense. They don't foul (they average just 12.7 per game) or turn the ball over (7 per game). In beating the Badgers, you have to start with Kaminsky. There are times when the All-American takes himself out of the game by not being aggressive enough. You can bet that won't happen on the national stage in the Final Four, so try to limit his touches. Make someone else on this team beat you. Kentucky should be able to disrupt him because of their size. He's not used to going against three 7-footers. On defense, go right at him. Make him defend. That will not be hard for Kentucky who will put pressure on Kaminsky. If he gets in early foul trouble, it will be a struggle for Wisconsin. The next step in beating the Badgers is to focus on Dekker. Sam Dekker has been perhaps their best player in the NCAA Tournament. He can spot up and drain 3s or blow by and go to the basket. Kentucky will, of course, try to force him inside so that he has to deal with their redwoods down low. That's a sound strategy and one that has worked for Kentucky all year. Then again, they haven't seen a combo like Kaminsky and Dekker all season.

And the prognostication? The Badgers will give Kentucky a game, that's for certain. If they win, it will be the story of the tournament. Will they be able to refocus by Monday night's Championship Game? These questions are impossible to answer. All that is certain is that there will be no quit in the Badgers. They will be in every game they play, and they will not give in.

CIT Final Preview

Schedule:
Tuesday, March 31, 7:00PM - Semifinal #1: UT Martin vs. Evansville
Tuesday, March 31, 9:00PM - Semifinal #2: NJIT vs. Northern Arizona
Thursday, April 2, 7:00PM - CIT Final: Evansville vs. Northern Arizona

Television Coverage:
All games will be broadcast on CBS Sports Network

Road to the Semifinals:

• Evansville beat IPFW (82-77), Eastern Illinois (83-68), UL-Lafayette (89-82), UT Martin (79-66)
• Northern Arizona beat Grand Canyon (75-70), Sacramento St. (78-73), Kent St. (74-73), NJIT (68-61)

Overview:
The four teams who were represented in the semifinals of the CollegeInsider.com Tournament could not be more different. UT Martin was out of the Ohio Valley Conference and finished in a distant second in the West Division of that conference. They were behind Murray St., of course, so a distant second is not necessarily a bad thing. They were a very respectable 10-6 in conference play. Evansville finished at just 9-9 in the Missouri Valley Conference, but they have one of the most impressive wins of the year - a 52-49 victory over Northern Iowa. Northern Arizona was part of a pack of teams vying for the Big Sky championship. They were the three seed in the conference tournament and beat their conference rival Sacramento St. earlier in the CIT. And then there is NJIT. The Highlanders win totals over the last several years are as follows: 5, 0, 1, 10, 15, 15, 16, 13, 21. That is remarkable. They went from winning 6 games in 3 seasons to winning 21 this year alone in less than a decade, which is impressive enough. What makes it spectacular is that NJIT is not in a conference. They're an independent. And not by choice. Nobody has offered to pick up the Highlanders, and yet they have continued to improve year after year. They got over the hump this year by beating Michigan, in Ann Arbor. That's the kind of win that can put your program on the map.

The first semifinal saw UT Martin taking on Evansville. As we said, Evansville got their biggest win of the season on January 1 when they took down Northern Iowa. That is clearly the signature win here. They struggled a bit in MVC play, but that's probably because it's such a tough conference. They have proven they're a good team by getting to this point and beating UT Martin.

Northern Arizona was a dangerous team in the Big Sky this season. They knocked off Eastern Washington, who would go on to represent the league in the NCAA Tournament, on February 21 and have only lost twice since February 12. Their most impressive win in that stretch may be the 74-73 overtime victory they just got over Kent St. in the quarterfinals. The Golden Flashes are no push over, but the Lumberjacks held right with them and came away with the win. They also got an impressive win over NJIT in the semifinals who was playing inspired basketball.

Final Four Team Preview: Kentucky

Kentucky Wildcats, 38-0

• Conference: SEC
• Seed: Number 1 Overall
• Leading Scorer: Aaron Harrison (11.3 points per game)
• Path to the Final Four:
• Round 1 - Defeated Hampton, 79-56
• Round of 32 - Defeated Cincinnati, 64-51
• Sweet 16 - Defeated West Virginia, 78-39
• Elite 8 - Defeated Notre Dame, 68-66

Kentucky is making their 4th Final Four appearance in the last 5 years. Ironically, the only year they did not make the Final Four in the last 5 years was in 2013 when they lost to Robert Morris in the first round of the NIT. Still, Big Blue Nation cannot be very upset with the way Coach Calipari is running the program. The Wildcats won the National Championship in 2012, their first since 1998, and this year they have what may be the best team in program history. In fact, it may be one of the best teams in college basketball history.

It has been well documented, of course, that this team is undefeated. No team has finished the regular season and NCAA Tournament undefeated since Indiana under Bobby Knight in 1976. If Kentucky is able to do it this season, they would finish with a record 40 wins and Kentucky's 9th National Championship.

They have gotten here as a result of two things: depth and size. Kentucky is the tallest team in basketball - NBA teams included. Their size has resulted in shut-down defense that allows just 53.9 points per game and averages 6.9 blocks per game. They haven't give up 70 points since February 21, a game they won over Auburn by scoring 110. They're able to play all-out all the time because of the number of players they have on their bench. Aaron Harrison, Devin Booker, Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Harrison, Willie Cauley-Stein, Trey Lyles, Dakari Johnson, Tyler Ulis, and Marcus Lee are all significant contributors. Alex Poythress would have been, but he was injured early in the season. That is to say, this team is solidly nine deep. That's a luxury most teams just don't have. Aaron Harrison is the one who really makes them go, though. He has played nearly 200 more minutes this season than any other Wildcat. He leads the team in scoring, and, most importantly, he always seems to be the one to take the big shot for Kentucky when the game is on the line.

So how do you beat them? That's a good question. Nobody has been able to figure it out so far this season, but Notre Dame came pretty close in the Elite 8. Following the Irish's blueprint is perhaps a key to keeping Kentucky from 40-0. Notre Dame has lights out shooters and lots of them. They spread the court and open the middle for dribble drives. One of the most interesting things Notre Dame did was to attack the shot-blockers on the drive. When Kentucky went for the blocked shot, Zach Auguste crashed the boards - hard. It was a strategy that clearly worked. Auguste had several put-back dunks that electrified the Irish. Notre Dame was only out-rebounded by 1 despite being incredibly undersized compared to the huge Wildcats. On defense, Notre Dame decided not to double Karl-Anthony Towns. The NBA Lottery Pick torched Notre Dame for 25 points, but everyone else on the Wildcat roster was held in check. Notre Dame stayed at home and let Towns get his. The idea was to make Kentucky beat them with 2s, not 3s. Wisconsin could follow a similar strategy, but what could help Wisconsin is that they have bigger and better big men than Notre Dame. If someone could come up with a couple stops against Towns one-on-one, it would put more pressure on someone else to score for Kentucky. The Wildcat guards are up to that challenge, Harrison and Ulis especially, but Kentucky's other big men are not as skilled offensively. They score on put-backs and because they're huge, but they do not have the weapons Towns does. A tall team with shooters who can stretch Kentucky's defense to the perimeter could make it a game against Kentucky.

All that being said, UK is easily the favorite to win the National Championship. If they lose, it will be one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history. If they don't lose, they make history by finishing the season 40-0. No matter how you slice it, something exciting is going to happen with this team in Indianapolis.

CBI Final Preview

Schedule:
Monday, March 30, 8:00PM - Game 1: UL Monroe vs. Loyola Chicago
Wednesday, April 1, 8:00PM - Game 2: Loyola Chicago vs. UL Monroe
Friday, April 3, 8:00PM - Game 3: Loyola Chicago vs. UL Monroe

Television Coverage:
All games will be broadcast on CBS Sports Network

Road to the Finals:

• Loyola Chicago beat Rider (62-59), Oral Roberts (86-78), Seattle (63-48).
• UL Monroe beat Eastern Michigan (71-67), Mercer (71-69), Vermont (71-65).

Overview:
We're down to two in the College Basketball Invitational (CBI). UL Monroe out of the Sun Belt and Loyola Chicago out of the Missouri Valley Conference have come out of the pack to get to the Championship Series. The CBI is different from the other post-season tournaments because they have a 3-game series to end their tournament. These two teams will play a best of three to determine the champion. The first of those games is Monday at 8PM.

It's a testament to the strength of the Missouri Valley Conference that Loyola Chicago has found themselves here. The Ramblers finished in 6th place in the MVC regular season at just 8-10 in conference. They have been playing well recently, though. They started MVC play 4-8 and finished the regular season 4-2. They upset Indiana St. in their first game in Arch Madness before falling to eventual champion Northern Iowa. That loss to the MVC tournament champions is the only loss in the past 7 games for Loyola Chicago. In the CBI Tournament so far, the Ramblers have only gotten better. They beat Rider by just 3, Oral Roberts by 8, and Seattle by 15. They are trending upwards heading into the championship series.

UL Monroe has had a great year. They played 5 games against NCAA Tournament teams this season, winning 1 of those games (on the road against UAB). They had two separate 6-game winning streaks during the season. They finished just a game behind Sun Belt regular and tournament season champions Georgia St. All in all, the Warhawks had a consistently solid season. Credit their defense. ULM allows just 60.3 points per game. Loyola Chicago is just a hair worse giving up 60.4 points per game, so expect this one to be low-scoring.

Prediction:
Loyola Chicago plays in the tougher conference overall, but UL Monroe has experience playing against NCAA Tournament darling Georgia St., no slouch in their own right. Both teams get after it defensively and sometimes struggle to score. UL Monroe has scored 71 points in each of their three CBI games so far. If they score 71 in any of their next three games, they should come away the winners. Each of these games should be close and come down to the wire. We expect UL Monroe to win in 3-games mostly due to the home-court advantage they will enjoy for the last two contests.

Mid-Majors and the Art of Outplaying Your Seed

College basketball fans have become rather acquainted with the mid-major elites (Butler, Gonzaga, Wichita St.) and the recent bracket busters (Dayton, George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth). The 12 vs 5 upsets and the deep runs of the 11 seeds have also become a common occurrence almost every year. The one area that many people do not discuss is the mid-majors outplaying their seed. With the Selection Committee generally giving mid-majors double digit seeds, these teams are generally not favored to go far in the NCAA tournament. There have been a few that have not let their seed hold them back and some that have squandered under the pressure of a higher seed.

First, let us take a look at the methodology used to figure out these teams. The first four rounds were used to generate a plus or minus score showing if the team won more or less games in those rounds than expected. We excluded the First Four, Final Four, and Championship Games since those would feature matchups of the same seed assuming the 1 seeds all advanced. The idea is to see how well the team did based on their initial seeding.

Here is the breakdown of the expected record based on the team's seed:

1 seed: 4-0

2 seed: 3-1

3-4 seeds: 2-1

5-8 seeds: 1-1

9-16 seeds: 0-1

Now let us look at the teams that have excelled despite their lower seeds. Since 1985, Richmond and Western Kentucky are the only teams to have five more expected wins than their seeds suggested. Richmond has made the tournament only eight times since it expanded to 64 teams, but the Spiders make it count nearly every time Richmond gets there. In seven of those eight postseasons, Richmond was a double digit seed meaning the Spiders were expected to go 0-1 in each of those tournaments based on their seed. Richmond made the Round of 32 four of those times and then the Sweet 16 in two of those four postseasons. Overall, Richmond was expected to go 1-8 based on their seeds, but the Spiders actually went 6-8. Western Kentucky has made 12 tournaments since 1985. The Hilltoppers have only been seeded 1-8 in three of those seasons. All three of those seasons, Western Kentucky matched or exceeded the expectations based on their seed. As a 9-16 seed, Western Kentucky has made it into the Round of 32 three times and then the Sweet 16 in one of those three postseasons. Overall, Western Kentucky was expected to go 3-12 based on their seeds, but the Hilltoppers actually went 8-12. There have been four other teams to fair well despite their seed. Dayton, Kent St., Loyola Marymount, and Rhode Island all have four more expected wins than their seeds suggested.

Not all mid-majors get double digits seeds though. The Atlantic 10, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, and West Coast Conferences often get single digit seeds. Some of those teams have failed to excel despite the higher expectations. New Mexico has struggled the most with six fewer wins than expected based on their seed. The Lobos have been seeded 1-8 in eight of 12 tournament appearances since 1985. New Mexico has only made the Round of 32 in half of those postseasons. The Lobos have never made the Sweet 16 despite their seed suggesting that New Mexico should have made four Sweet 16's. Overall, New Mexico was expected to go 12-12 based on their seeds, but the Lobos actually went 6-12. While Massachusetts has been successful in the tournament, the Minutemen have underperformed based on their seeds. Massachusetts has made eight tournament since 1985. The Minutemen made the expected round in four of those postseasons, but underperformed in the other four based on their seed. Massachusetts has five less wins than expected based on their seeds. Overall, Massachusetts was expected to go 16-7 based on the seeds, but the Minutemen actually went 11-7. There have been two other teams to struggle despite gaining higher seeds. Brigham Young and UNLV have four less expected wins than their seeds suggested. Of the five mid-majors with the most expected wins, only the Gonzaga Bulldogs have avoided a negative expected win total. In Gonzaga's 18 tournament appearances, the Bulldogs were expected to get 20 wins. Gonzaga has exactly 22 wins in those 18 postseasons.

There are five conferences with more actual wins than expected wins in the double digits. These numbers take into account the current teams of that conference and the teams' entire tournament histories even if those wins came in a different conference. The current members of the Atlantic 10 and Mid American Conferences have 18 more wins than expected. Conference USA and the Missouri Valley Conference have 14 more wins than expected. The Horizon League has 10 more wins than expected. The only mid-major conference with less wins than expected is the Mountain West Conference. The current members of the Mountain West Conference have six less wins than expected.

While seeding is not always indicative of a team's actual abilities especially when the Selection Committee generally punishes mid-majors because of weaker conference schedules, there have definitely been certain teams to rise above their seeds and some that have struggled  to live up to their higher expectations. The tournament provides many opportunities for these teams to keep proving the Selection Committee wrong or to turn around their struggles in the NCAA tournament.

Which Four Will be the Final Four? Elite 8 Preview, Part 2

By the end of tomorrow the 2015 Final Four will be set and packing their bags for Indianapolis. Can Michigan St. continue their run or will Louisville return to the Final Four for the 3rd time in 4 years? Can Gonzaga break through and get to the promised land? Will Duke return for the first time since they won the national championship in 2010? We honestly can't wait to find out.

2:20PM, CBS - (7) Michigan St. vs. (4) Louisville - This has to be the most unexpected matchup of the Elite 8. Michigan St. was a trendy upset pick, but they had to go through the number 2 and 3 seeds in the bracket just to get to this point. Louisville had struggled down the stretch in the regular season and exited early in the ACC Tournament. They barely got past UC Irvine in their first tournament game, in fact. And yet, here they both are. It really should be no surprise when you look at the sidelines. Tom Izzo and Rick Pitino are not new to this whole March thing. Izzo has mastered the skill of getting his teams playing their best at this time of year, and Pitino's Louisville teams haven't been eliminated before the Sweet 16 since 2011. These two Hall of Famers will have their teams prepared and ready to go, so you know it's going to be a well-played game. 

5:05PM, CBS - (2) Gonzaga vs. (1) Duke - On paper, Gonzaga has the edge here. They have the offensive firepower to score enough to hang with Duke. They have the highest field goal percentage in the country and scored just 1.5 less points per game than Duke this season. But the Zags also have the big men to bother Okafor and force someone else to step up. That, however, might be a problem for Gonzaga. Utah essentially took Okafor out of the game, and Justice Winslow torched them. If Gonzaga can find a way to frustrate Okafor and contain Winslow, they will win. If one of those two goes off for Duke, give the advantage to the Blue Devils. Either way, both of these teams can score efficiently, so it will be a fun game to watch. Will it result in Mark Few breaking through for his first Final Four or will Coach K put the recent early round eliminations behind him?

Which Four Will be the Final Four? Elite 8 Preview, Part 1

The Sweet 16 games from the left side of the bracket were a mixed bag. On the one hand, we had the great games between Arizona and Xavier and Wisconsin and North Carolina. On the other, we had Kentucky and West Virginia. That's all behind us now, though, and it's time to focus on the Elite 8.

6:09, TBS - (2) Arizona vs. (1) Wisconsin - Both of these teams were popular pre-season picks to make the Final Four. Both were popular picks to come out of this bracket. So far, they have both lived up to the hype. This is going to be an epic game between two teams who are well coached, evenly matched, and familiar with each other. Remember, Arizona was knocked out of last year's tournament by Wisconsin in the Elite 8. Revenge will certainly be on the minds of the Wildcats, but revenge alone won't win this game. Just like confidence won't win the game for Wisconsin. Both teams will have to execute and defend. Both teams are capable and deserving Final Four teams, but only one can come away from the game with tickets to Indianapolis.

8:49, TBS - (3) Notre Dame vs. (1) Kentucky - Kentucky had no problem with West Virginia's press. The Wildcats absolutely dismantled the Mountaineers in statement-making fashion. Word of advice to Notre Dame: don't smack talk. It's becoming more and more obvious that the best way to beat Kentucky is to catch them off guard. West Virginia made sure that wasn't going to happen, and they paid for it. Notre Dame won't make that same mistake, but can they figure out Kentucky's defense? Notre Dame is one of the best shooting teams in the country, and they can knock down the 3. They will spread the floor and try to out-shoot Kentucky. That's their best bet because the Irish are woefully undersized compared to UK. Notre Dame doesn't rebound well against their average competition, and, it's safe to say, this is their average competition. To make up for the beating they're going to take on the interior, they will need to hit a lot of those 3s.

NCAA Tournament, Sweet 16 Viewing Guide: Part 2

Half of the Elite 8 is set. No major surprises so far. Will we see some more upsets from the crazier right side of the bracket? Let's take a look.

7:15PM, CBS - (11) UCLA vs. (2) Gonzaga - UCLA has done pretty well for themselves for a team most people didn't think should even be in the tournament. Remember, this is a team who lost 5 in a row in late December and early January. They're 6-1 over their last 7, though, including their win over a good SMU team in the first round. The Bruins are also familiar with their opponent. They played Gonzaga on December 13 and lost - the first of that aforementioned 5 game losing streak. The Zags won that game by 13 points, which was closer than the game really was. Gonzaga cruised. UCLA has improved since then, but have they improved enough?

7:37PM, TBS - (8) NC State vs. (4) Louisville - When Louisville lost 3 of 4 in mid-February, not many people would have picked them as a Sweet 16 team. They also lost 2 of their last 3 games before the tournament including a loss in their first game in the ACC Tournament to North Carolina. But that's what makes the NCAA Tournament so unpredictable because here they sit in the Sweet 16. Credit Pitino for getting his guys tournament ready. And while we're talking about surprising Sweet 16 teams, let's talk about NC State. The Wolfpack got a signature win over Duke on January 11. They followed that up by losing 6 of their next 8 games. They were in danger of missing the tournament altogether. They rallied, though, and won 6 of 7, including a 9 point win against Louisville on the road. Will that game give them confidence coming in? No doubt. Will that matter? We'll see.

9:45PM, CBS - (5) Utah vs. (1) Duke - It's not that Utah is bad offensively because they aren't. It's just that they're so good defensively, that's what people focus on. The Utes give up just 56.9 points per game. That total is up over their last 9 games to 60.7 points per game - a stretch in which the Utes are just 5-4. And that should tell you all you need to know about the key to the game for Utah. They have to keep Duke's offense in check. The Blue Devils shoot better than 50% from the floor and score more than 80 points per game. If this game is in the 80s, Duke will win. If it's in the mid-60s, give the edge to Utah.

10:07PM, TBS - (7) Michigan St. vs. (3) Oklahoma - Michigan St. had a very Tom Izzo-like year. They were solid but not spectacular in the regular season. They went into the Big 10 Tournament on a roll and made a run to the championship game where they took 1-seed Wisconsin to overtime before losing. And since the ball tipped in their first round NCAA Tournament game, they have been playing great basketball. That's what Izzo seems to do every single year. He has his team ready to go for March. Virginia fell victim this year (and last). Oklahoma will be the next team to try to slow down the Spartans. The Sooners had to be glad to see Iowa St. get eliminated. Oklahoma has lost to the Cyclones twice in the month of March. The good news? That's the only team Oklahoma has lost to since February 14. Nobody else has gotten to the Sooners - not Texas, not Kansas, not Oklahoma St. Will Michigan St. be the next to fall to the Sooners or will the Spartans keep their run going?

NCAA Tournament, Sweet 16 Viewing Guide: Part 1

We're down to 16. Last weekend's games were as entertaining as always - the NCAA Tournament never disappoints. By the end of this weekend, we'll be down to four, the Final Four. Let's take a look at tomorrow's games.

7:15PM, CBS - (7) Wichita St. vs. (3) Notre Dame - On paper, this is probably the most evenly matched game of the Sweet 16. Notre Dame has been playing great basketball by winning the ACC Tournament and then winning their first two games in the NCAA Tournament over Northeastern and Butler. The Irish are playing defense better than they have all year, and it's paying off for them. Wichita St. is coming off one of the biggest wins in their program's history - a Round of 32 victory over in-state rival Kansas. The Shockers are being fueled by Junior guard Fred VanVleet who has been lights out since the start of the NCAA Tournament. He will need another big game if Wichita St. is going to advance to another Elite 8.

7:47PM, TBS - (4) North Carolina vs. (1) Wisconsin - Not that long ago, the Tar Heels seemed to be in a free fall. They lost 5 of 7 games and had fallen out of the ACC race. That is ancient history now. Since that time they have wins over Louisville and Virginia and, of course, two wins in the NCAA Tournament. A hard-fought win over Harvard and a solid win over Arkansas in the Round of 32. Wisconsin is a different animal, though. The Badgers are one of the best teams in the nation and unlike any team Carolina has seen so far this season. If Carolina is going to win it will be because they dominated the boards and were able to get out in transition. If it's a half-court game, Wisconsin will win running away. The Badgers have lost just 3 times all season - and just twice when Frank Kaminsky plays. They've struggled somewhat in the tournament so far, though. They beat Coastal Carolina by 14 and were never seriously threatened, but they were pushed by Oregon. The Ducks stayed with them all the way to the end before Wisconsin could put them away. Survive and advance is the name of the game, though, and Wisconsin has done that. We'll see if they can do it again.

9:45PM, CBS - (5) West Virginia vs. (1) Kentucky - In each of these previews we have talked about WVU's pressing defense. Can Buffalo handle it? Can Maryland handle it? So far the answer has always been no. Can Kentucky handle it? That remains to be seen. The Wildcats have not faced a defense like West Virginia's all season long and, although they have big men who can handle the ball, Kentucky doesn't really have a plethora of guards accustomed to breaking a press. The Harrison twins and Tyler Ulis will have that responsibility. If they rack up the turnovers, the Mountaineers will be able to stay close. West Virginia, of course, has not seen a team like Kentucky before either. Will the Mountaineers be able to score enough to hang in the game? The keys for WVU are to limit the number of offensive rebounds Kentucky can get, to not turn the ball over, and to play physically with the Wildcats. Don't be intimidated by their size and skill. Take them head on. It would be one of the biggest upsets in tournament history if WVU were to win, but that doesn't mean it's impossible.

10:17PM, TBS - (6) Xavier vs. (2) Arizona - Xavier is maybe the most surprising of the Sweet 16 teams. The Musketeers were just 9-9 in the Big East this season. They lost 13 games overall. Still, the bracket laid out well in front of them, and they won the games they needed to win. The handled Ole Miss fairly easily in the first round, and then beat Georgia St. by 8 in the Round of 32. So here they are. It would be a monster upset if they beat Arizona, though. The Wildcats haven't lost since February 7 and are playing great basketball. They won the Pac-12 tournament, and then beat Texas Southern and Ohio St. easily in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. They lost to Wisconsin in the Elite 8 last season, and a win over Xavier would set them up for a possible rematch in the Elite 8 this year. Revenge is quite the motivator.

Other Post-Season Tournaments: CIT Edition

The CIT, or Collegeinsider.com Tournament, was created in 2009. Similar to the CBI, the CIT does some unique things. It consists of 32 teams, but they receive no seeds. Each rounds' matchups are determined after the previous rounds' games have finished. It makes for a different experience and one which some teams probably prefer.

This year's field has already gone from 32 to 8. Those four matchups should all be good games. UT Martin takes on Eastern Kentucky in one game. Remember, Eastern Kentucky beat Miami earlier this season. They also, ironically, beat UT-Martin earlier this season by 8 points. The Skyhawks finished behind Murray St. in the Ohio Valley West and played the Racers well twice.

Evansville, one of just two teams to beat Northern Iowa in Missouri Valley play, is still alive as well. They will play UL-Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns were a part of a pack of four teams jockeying for position atop the Sun Belt this season. They even have a win over NCAA Tournament Cinderella darling Georgia St.

In one of the more intriguing matchups, Kent St. will play Northern Arizona. NAU was a good team this year in the Big Sky and finished tied for third with Sacramento St. in the regular season standings. Kent St. is coming off back-to-back wins over Middle Tennessee and Texas A&M Corpus Cristi, two tough teams in their own right. The Golden Flashes actually finished with the same conference record as Buffalo in the MAC. They may be the favorite to win the whole tournament, in fact.

The last quarterfinal game is between Canisius and NJIT. Canisius is probably the most surprising team still left in the tournament. They finished in fifth place in the MAAC and just 16-14 in the regular season. They have beaten both Dartmouth and Bowling Green to get to this point, though, so you can't count them out. NJIT is also a unique circumstance because they are the only independent in D-I basketball. The Highlanders are no slouch, though. They beat Michigan, in Ann Arbor. They also beat St. Francis (NY), who won the NEC regular season title, and Yale who finished tied for first in the Ivy League.

The next round's matchups are, of course, not yet determined. That makes it harder to predict who may win, but the favorites at this point have to be Kent St. and Eastern Kentucky. Whoever makes it, you can bet these teams will be fighting hard to be one of just a few teams to finish their season with a win.

The Dust Settles: Gonzaga Returns

Gonzaga made the Sweet 16 each year from 1999-2001. The went again in 2006 and 2009. Then a drought started. Gonzaga lost in the Round of 32 in each of the 5 years that followed 2009, including in 2013 when they were a number 1 seed. As a number 2 seed this year, a Sweet 16 appearance was nearly essential. Nobody, Mark Few included, would have settled for less. There are even some rumblings from the fan base that anything short of a Final Four would be unacceptable. So far, Gonzaga has delivered.

The Bulldogs struggled for a time with North Dakota St. The Bison played a great game and cut Gonzaga's lead to just 6 at one point in the second half. Despite 22 points from Dexter Werner and 19 from last year's tournament hero for the Bison, Lawrence Alexander, Gonzaga pulled away. The Bulldogs got the win 86-76.

There was no such drama in round two. The past 5 years were put behind the Zags because they came out on fire in their game against Iowa. They took a 46-29 lead into halftime, and never let off the gas the rest of the way. They won the game running away, 87-68. So how far can Gonzaga go? Their first Elite 8 since 1999? Their first Final Four in school history? A national championship?

The Zags will be the favorite in their next matchup against UCLA. The Bruins barely squeaked in the tournament and many, us included, do not think the Bruins earned a bid. Still, they have made the most of this chance. They beat SMU on a goaltended three and then handled UAB to make it to this point. They are playing their best basketball of the year right now, but they have not seen a team like Gonzaga. Give the edge to the Zags here who are bigger and, frankly, just better. Not to mention the fact that Gonzaga beat UCLA by 13 earlier this season.

That would set up an Elite 8 game with either Duke or Utah. Gonzaga may have the advantage in either one of those matchups. Duke is not a particularly strong rebounding team - something Gonzaga does very well. Duke does not defend very well - Gonzaga has the highest shooting percentage of any team in college basketball. Utah has had a great season, but they finished the regular season just 3-4 over their last 7 games. They have won two straight in the NCAA Tournament, but there is no denying this team is not playing as strongly as they once were.

If things go Gonzaga's way, they would face a lower-seeded team in the Final Four no matter who comes out of the East bracket. There are a lot of things that need to happen between now and that time, but Gonzaga is one of a few teams who could give Kentucky a challenge. Will they get that opportunity? Time will tell.

Other Post-Season Tournament: CBI Edition

The College Basketball Invitational (CBI) was created in 2007. It is a 16 team tournament that has no seeding, which is one of a few unique things about the CBI. One, teams can pay to have home games in the tournament. Two, the finals are a best two-out-of-three format. Also, the tournament is re-bracketed after the quarterfinal round. The initial tournament champion was Tulsa and last season Siena won the championship.

The first two rounds of the CBI have already taken place. The quarterfinal matchups had some interesting games. Colorado played Seattle in one bracket. The Buffalos were the only team from a Power 5 conference in the field this year. Seattle was the only team to knock of New Mexico St. in WAC play this season. Seattle won the game 72-65.

Mercer lost to UL Monroe in another bracket. The Bears were the first victim of Furman in the Southern Conference Tournament. Forman made a run to the championship game as the last seed before losing to Wofford. UL Monroe finished the season in third in the Sun Belt this season.

Vermont and Radford was a good game as well with Vermont winning by 7. The Catamounts were second to Albany in the America East while Radford was part of a big pack of contenders in the Big South.

The last quarterfinal matchup was Loyola Chicago and Oral Roberts. Loyola won by 8. Loyola was eliminated by eventual champion Northern Iowa in the MVC Tournament. Similarly, Oral Roberts lost to eventual champion North Dakota St. in the Summit League Tournament.

Vermont will play Loyola and UL Monroe will play Seattle for a chance to play in the finals.

The three-game finals of the CBI will take place on March 30, April 1, and April 3.

The Dust Settles: Wichita St. Still Alive

It has been quite a ride for Wichita St. so far. The Shockers were badly under-seeded as a 7 seed (they really should have been a 4-5 seed), so Selection Sunday could not have been that much fun. Until they saw their potential second round matchup, anyway. The Shockers were in line to play Kansas in the Round of 32.

Gregg Marshall, head coach of Wichita St., says he has been trying to schedule Kansas for years. Bill Self of Kansas says there are more strategic games he could schedule for recruiting purposes. Thus, the two teams do not play regularly. The fact that these two Kansas schools have not played each other much and that one of the two refused to play the other, only added to the excitement leading up to this game. It was a game, though, that almost didn't happen.

Before Wichita St. could take on their rivals (who easily handled New Mexico St. in the first round), they had to get past Indiana in the first round. The Hoosiers were game. They gave the Shockers all they could handle and may very well have come away with a win if not for Fred Van Vleet. Wichita St.'s point guard finished that game with 27 points, 4 assists, 2 steals, and only 1 turnover. His effort helped his team to a 81-76 win and set up the dream matchup with Kansas.

Van Vleet, a Senior who has taken his team to the Final Four and an undefeated regular season already, followed up that great game against Indiana with an even better one against Kansas. He had 17 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals, 1 block, and 5 turnovers. That is just the kind of stat-stuffing game the Shockers needed. Kansas simply could not contend with him. In the end, Wichita St. won the game easily. They controlled the second half in a way that many probably didn't think was possible against the dominant force of Kansas. The final score was 78-65 in favor of the "Little Brother" in the Sunflower State. Wichita St. will probably petition to have that nickname changed now. They're the big brother of Kansas at this point. It's no wonder the Jayhawks didn't want to play them. They were afraid of losing.

It's a tough road ahead for Wichita St. On Thursday they play Notre Dame for a chance at the Elite 8. The Irish are lights out shooters, so the Shockers will have to play lock-down perimeter defense. The knock on Notre Dame all year has been their defense, but they have improved tremendously over the last few weeks. Just ask Duke and North Carolina, two teams Notre Dame beat on their way to the ACC Tournament Championship. If Wichita St. can shut them down and advance, a rematch with Kentucky is likely.

Last year, Wichita St. entered the NCAA Tournament undefeated and as a number 1 seed. Kentucky was an 8 seed who was able to upset the Shockers on their way to a run to the national championship game. This year, Kentucky is undefeated and looking to finish the season perfect. I'm sure Gregg Marshall and his Shockers would love nothing more than to repay the favor and take down the Wildcats.

Other Post-Season Tournaments: NIT Edition

There are, of course, other tournaments outside of the NCAA Tournament. The biggest and best of these is the NIT, the National Invitation Tournament. The NIT started in 1938 and is run by the NCAA who purchased the tournament in 2005. In it's earlier years, the NIT rivaled the NCAA Tournament as the most prestigious post-season college basketball event. The games were held at Madison Square Garden, where the finals are still held today. Now, the NIT is more of a consolation prize for teams who don't make the NCAA Tournament. Teams who win their regular season conference championship are guaranteed bids to the NIT, and the first four teams who miss out on NCAA Tournament bids are given the number one seeds. With that history lesson behind us, let's take a look at this year's tournament, which is chalk full of mid-majors.

First round games have already taken place in the NIT with the most notable upset coming from South Dakota St. who took down number one seeded Colorado St. The Jackrabbits lost their second round game to Vanderbilt, though, who is now in the quarterfinals. They will play Stanford who knocked off Rhode Island for a chance to get to Madison Square Garden.

One seed Old Dominion out of C-USA will play Illinois St. who upset Wichita St. in the Missouri Valley Tournament. The winner of that game will play the winner of Murray St. and Tulsa. The Racers had one of the nation's longest winning streaks snapped when they lost to Belmont in the Ohio Valley Tournament. Tulsa was a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament who came up just short. It should be a good game between these two teams.

On the other side Richmond, as a one seed, beat Arizona St. and will play Miami who beat Alabama to make it to the quarterfinals. The Spiders have played well of late and beat their cross-town rivals from VCU twice this season. Arizona St. is coming off a win over the defending national champions from UConn.

Finally, one seed Temple handled George Washington for the right to play the winner of C-USA regular season champions Louisiana Tech and Texas A&M. Temple was the first team out of the NCAA Tournament, which is sometimes a death sentence for NIT play. Often teams who narrowly miss out on the NCAA Tournament struggle to find motivation to play in the NIT. 

The final four of the NIT takes place on March 31 with the championship game following two dats later on April 2.

Mid Majors and the Power of the 11 Seed

The 12 seeds get all the glory from analysts and bracket gurus when it comes to making first round upset picks. The 12 seeds certainly deserve that love when they go 8-4 in a three year stretch. The 11 seeds may be the true upset kings though. The 11 seeds are causing just as many first and second round upsets, but the 11 seeds are making deeper runs in the NCAA tournament.

Since 1985, the 12 seeds have accounted for 44 first round upsets while the 11 seeds have accounted for 43 first round upsets. The numbers have been similar of late. In the last five years, there have been 9 first round upsets from 12 seeds and 10 first round upsets from the 11 seeds. The 12 seeds had their streak of seven straight tournaments with a first round upset come to an end this year. Meanwhile, the 11 seeds extended their streak to 11 straight years with wins from UCLA and Dayton. The numbers are nearly equal in the second round as well. The 12 seeds have 20 upsets compared to the 18 upsets from 11 seeds. While the 12 seeds' upsets are more impressive since they came against higher seeds, the 11 seeds are holding their own in the first and second rounds when compared to the 12 seeds.

The 11 seeds really make their bracket busting name when it comes to the second weekend of the tournament. There have been seven teams seeded 11 and above to make the Elite Eight. Six of them were 11 seeds. The one exception was 12 seeded Missouri in 2002. The last five 11 seeds to make the Elite Eight were from mid-major conferences. Dayton was the most recent 11 seed to make the Elite Eight last year. Before them were Virginia Commonwealth (2011), George Mason (2006), Temple (2001), and Loyola Marymount (1990). Dayton will look to make it back-to-back appearances in the Sweet Sixteen and possibly the Elite Eight if they can defeat Oklahoma today and the winner of Michigan St and Virginia. If Dayton can make it that far, the Flyers could get a chance to make the Final Four, which is something only three other teams seeded 11 and above have done before. Two of those three teams were from mid-major conferences (2011 Virginia Commonwealth and 2006 George Mason). Both Virginia Commonwealth and George Mason defeated one seeds with multiple national titles. Virginia Commonwealth defeated Kansas who has three national titles. George Mason defeated Connecticut who has four national titles. While the one seed has already been upset in Dayton's bracket, Louisville still remains who has won three national titles.

The 12 seeds definitely deserve credit for their many first round upsets, but the 11 seeds are the true bracket busters. It is only a matter of time before another 11 seed makes it into the Final Four and possibly the national title game. UCLA is only two games away from a Final Four and Dayton is now only three games away from a Final Four. Could UCLA join LSU as the next power conference 11 seed to make a Final Four? Can Dayton bust brackets for a second straight season? We will soon find out.

NCAA Tournament, Day 4: Complete the Sweet

The Sweet 16 will be set by the end of today. Which of the teams below will join the 8 who are already through? We'll find out soon.

12:10PM, CBS - (7) Michigan St. vs. (2) Virginia - This has the potential to be a very, very good game. Virginia has been one the best teams in the country all season long, but they haven't been the same team since Justin Anderson's injury. He's back now but hasn't looked full strength yet. Michigan St. has played their best basketball of late. They just took Wisconsin to overtime in the Big 10 title game and beat Georgia easily in the first round. Will Virginia get back to the way they played earlier this season? Will Michigan St. be able to score enough? We'll find out.

2:40PM, CBS - (8) San Diego St. vs. (1) Duke - Speaking of can they score enough, San Diego St. has struggled to put the ball through the basket all season long. Their defense has carried them. That was before their game against St. John's. The Aztecs put up 76 points, their highest total since January 20. They will need every bit of that offense if they are going to knock off the Blue Devils. Duke is one of the best offensive teams in the country and should put up points even against SDSU's stellar D.

5:15PM, CBS - (7) Wichita St. vs. (2) Kansas - What an intriguing matchup. Wichita St. has been trying to schedule Kansas for years. The Jayhawks would have none of it. They can't avoid the game now, though. The Shockers will surely want to prove they are in a league with Kansas, and Kansas will want to prove they had no business playing Wichita St. Our guess is that this will be a hotly contested and evenly matched game. Circle this one. You want to miss it.

6:10PM, TNT - (11) Dayton vs. (3) Oklahoma - Dayton has won two games in this tournament already, but they are undersized and undermanned. Do they have enough in the tank to win another and get back to the Sweet 16? Oklahoma hasn't been to the Sweet 16 since 2009, but the Sooners have one of their best teams in recent memory. If they can wear down Dayton, they should move on. But we have learned by now not to count out the Flyers no matter the odds.

7:10PM, TBS - (7) Iowa vs. (2) Gonzaga - The Zags didn't exactly struggle in their opening game against North Dakota St., but they weren't impressive either. Iowa, though, was nothing but impressive. The Hawkeyes absolutely dismantled Davidson. If they play like that, they will give Gonzaga all they can handle. The Zags, once Sweet 16 regulars, haven't been since 2009. Fans of the Bulldogs want to see their team playing in the second weekend again. Mark Few does too.

7:45PM, truTV - (8) Oregon vs. (1) Wisconsin - Kentucky would have been our last pick for a number one seed to lose in the second round. Wisconsin is our second to last pick. The Badgers have been playing extremely well for quite awhile now. Then again, so has Oregon. The Ducks have won 8 of 9 and won't be afraid of going against a number one seed.

8:40PM, TNT - (5) West Virginia vs. (4) Maryland - This might start sounding like a broken record, but if Maryland can keep from turning the ball over they should beat WVU. That's easier said than done, of course. The Mountaineers pressure has been dominant this season and fueled them to this point. If they can create problems for the Terps' offense, WVU can get their shot at Kentucky.

9:40PM, TBS - (5) Northern Iowa vs. (4) Louisville - The Cardinals escaped UC Irvine. Was that their test on the way to a longer tournament run or was it a sign of things to come for Louisville? They have not played particularly well since dismissing Chris Jones. Northern Iowa's defense could cause some problems for Louisville who sometimes has trouble scoring. It should be a lower-scoring game that will come down to the wire.

NCAA Tournament, Day 3: Onto the Sweet 16

The first of the Sweet 16 teams will be crowned on Saturday. Some teams will consider that achievement just a step towards a much larger goal. Others will consider their trip to the Sweet 16 all the accomplishment they could have hoped for. Either way, you can bet there will be lots of good basketball to go around.

12:10PM, CBS - (14) UAB vs. (11) UCLA - In one of the more surprising Round of 32 match-ups, UAB will take on UCLA. The Blazers needed to get hot in the Conference USA Tournament to even get their NCAA Tournament bid, but after their upset of Iowa St. they are in position to get back to the Sweet 16. UCLA was involved in the most controversial game of the Tournament so far. The goaltending call on Bryce Alford's three pointer was questionable, but that's in the past now. The Bruins are looking to make back-to-back appearances in the Sweet 16 for the first time since '07-'08.

2:40PM, CBS - (8) Cincinnati vs. (1) Kentucky - Cincinnati got all they could handle from Purdue in what was one of the better games from the first round. The Bearcats will need to bring the fight they had in that game to the game against Kentucky if they have any chance. And even that might not be enough. Kentucky is a special team, and Cincinnati would need to play a nearly perfect game to get the win.

5:15PM, CBS - (10) Ohio St. vs. (2) Arizona - Ohio St. has one of the best Freshman, and players, in the country in D'Angelo Russell. He will need a big game if the Buckeyes are going to knock off Arizona. The Wildcats haven't lost since February 7 and are coming off a 21 point win over Texas Southern.

6:10PM, TNT - (14) Georgia St. vs. (6) Xavier - Georgia St. pulled off an amazing comeback victory over Baylor in the first round. Xavier won fairly comfortably over Ole Miss. The Musketeers should have the advantage here, but Baylor learned that you can't count out Georgia St. The Sun Belt Champs won't be an easy out.

7:10PM, TBS - (8) NC State vs. (1) Villanova - It seemed like picking the Wolfpack to upset Villanova was a popular choice on Selection Sunday. After Villanova's performance in the first round, people may have reconsidered. Nova crushed Lafayette, while NC State struggled at times with LSU. The Wolfpack did comeback and win the game on a last second shot, but they will need to play better if they are going to survive and advance again.

7:45PM, CBS - (5) Utah vs. (4) Georgetown - We wrote on this blog about how much we liked Stephen F. Austin and Eastern Washington. Oops. Utah and Georgetown dismissed both of those teams and now face each other in an interesting 4/5 game. If the Hoya team from the first half against EWU show up, it will be a great game. If the second half Hoyas are playing, Utah could run away with it.

8:40PM, TNT - (5) Arkansas vs. (4) North Carolina - Both Arkansas and North Carolina were tested in their first round match-ups. Arkansas escaped Wofford and North Carolina held on to beat Harvard. This game should be fast and fun. Expect both teams to run and score in transition.

9:40PM, TBS - (6) Butler vs. (3) Notre Dame - The ACC Tournament Champions looked a little rusty against Northeastern. Still, at the end of the day they advanced. They get Butler now who escaped Texas to get to this point. Butler was probably not a pre-season choice to be playing in the second weekend of the Tournament, but they have been proving people wrong for years. Don't expect either team to pull away by much in this one.

NCAA Tournament: Day 2 Viewing Guide

Phew. Day 1 was as crazy a day of NCAA Tournament action as we can remember. Brackets are surely busted (ours certainly is), but we're only getting started. Let's do it all over again on Day 2. Here's your viewing guide:

Friday, March 20

12:15PM, CBS - (15) New Mexico St. vs. (2) Kansas - Start your viewing on Day 2 with New Mexico St. trying to take down Kansas. The Aggies have had a good season, but beating the Jayhawks would be quite a surprise.

12:40PM, truTV - (10) Georgia vs. (7) Michigan St. - If New Mexico St. is sticking with Kansas, feel free to stay there. If not, flip over to see how Georgia handles Michigan St. The Spartans made a run all the way to the Big 10 title game and are playing their best basketball of the season right now.

1:40PM, TBS - (12) Wyoming vs. (5) Northern Iowa - Another 12/5 match-up, which should result in a close game. Wyoming won the Mountain West tournament to steal a bid, and Northern Iowa won the Missouri Valley tournament to cap a great season. This should be a low-scoring but entertaining game.

2:10PM, TNT - (12) Buffalo vs. (5) West Virginia - Can Buffalo break WVU's press? The answer to that question will determine who wins this game. Buffalo doesn't turn the ball over much ordinarily, but the Mountaineers' defense is probably unlike anything Buffalo has seen all season.

2:45PM, CBS - (10) Indiana vs. (7) Wichita St.

3:10PM, truTV - (15) Belmont vs. (2) Virginia

4:10PM, TBS - (13) UC Irvine vs. (4) Louisville - When the Buffalo/WVU game ends, turn on the Anteaters who are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance. Louisville hasn't been the same team since dismissing Chris Jones, which could make this a close game.

4:40PM, TNT - (13) Valparaiso vs. (4) Maryland - Valpo won the Horizon League regular season and tournament titles. No easy task this season. Maryland has been a surprise in the Big 10. If the UC Irvine/Louisville game isn't close, you will probably find a good one here.

6:50PM, TBS - (9) Oklahoma St. vs. (8) Oregon - The evening games get started with Oklahoma St. and Oregon. The Cowboys have not been playing well, but 8/9 games are usually evenly matched. This one is too. Expect a closely contested game.

7:10PM, CBS - (16) Robert Morris vs. (1) Duke

7:20PM, TNT - (10) Davidson vs. (7) Iowa - Davidson was one of the hottest teams in the country before getting ousted in the A-10 tournament. If we see the Wildcats team from the past few weeks, and not the one who lost to VCU last week, this will be a great game. Davidson could have the edge, in fact.

7:27PM, truTV - (14) Albany vs. (3) Oklahoma

9:20PM, TBS - (16) Coastal Carolina vs. (1) Wisconsin - Coastal Carolina is the best of the 16 seeds. Unfortunately for them, they're playing a really good Wisconsin team. This game will at least get you through until St. John's and San Diego St. starts.

9:40PM, CBS - (9) St. John's vs. (8) San Diego St. - Can San Diego St. score enough? If the answer is yes, the Aztecs could not only win this game but beat Duke/Robert Morris in the next round. If the answer is no, they'll have a hard time beating St. John's.

9:50PM, TNT - (15) North Dakota St. vs. (2) Gonzaga

9:57PM, truTV - (11) Dayton vs. (6) Providence - Dayton is undersized and undermanned, but they play hard and they play together. The nightcap should be a good game between two teams who are more evenly matched than their 11 and 6 seeds would have you believe.

Mid-Majors and the Art of the 12 vs. 5 Upset

Every sports analyst and article giving pointers on picking a bracket will tell you a few certainties:

(1) Do not pick a 16 seed to upset a 1 seed. The 16 seeds are 0-120 since 1985.

(2) Do not pick all four 1 seeds in the Final Four. Only six have made the Final Four in the last six years.

(3) Pick 12 vs. 5 upsets. Pick lots of them!

12 seeds upsetting 5 seeds have become so likely in the past few years that the 12 seeds may be the favorites over 5 seeds now. In the last three years, the 12 seeds are 8-4 against the 5 seeds. There is no scientific reasoning for this phenomenon, but here is a look at why these upsets tend to happen so often.

Let us take a look at the 5 seeds first. Generally, the 5 seeds are the third tier of power conference teams who struggled somewhat during the season and usually play fairly inconsistently. Arkansas was the second best team in the SEC, but there was a big drop from one to two. The rest of the SEC is far behind Kentucky and has been one of the weaker power conferences over the past few years. Arkansas went only 13-5 in conference and struggles on the road going 4-4 against RPI Top 100 teams. The Razorbacks limped into the NCAA tournament finishing 3-3.  The Pac12 was a similar conference to the SEC. After Arizona at the top, there was a big drop-off. Utah went 13-5 in conference and struggled on the road going 1-4 against RPI Top 100 teams. The Utes limped into the tournament finishing 3-4. The Big12 was a stronger conference than the SEC and Pac12 this year, but seemed to be overrated at times. West Virginia went 11-7 in conference and struggled on the road going 2-5 against RPI Top 100 teams. The Mountaineers limped into the NCAA tournament finishing 1-3. Northern Iowa is the exception to these teams as the Panthers finished 30-3 and won the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. However, the mid-major 5 seed vs. 12 seed has also provided some upsets recently. 12 seeded Stephen F. Austin upset 5 seeded Virginia Commonwealth last season and 12 seeded Virginia Commonwealth upset 5 seeded Wichita St. in 2012. The bottom line is that the 5 seeds tend to be very vulnerable teams going into the NCAA tournament.

Now here is a look at the 12 seeds. In most seasons, the 11 seeds are the final at-large teams into the field of 68. This means that the 12 seeds are usually the second tier of mid-major automatic qualifiers. These 12 seeds are often under-seeded as well. Three of this year's 12 seeds (Buffalo, Stephen F. Austin, Wofford) were all under-seeded according to their RPI's. These teams come in with a lot of talent and a lot to prove. Buffalo is an up and coming team out of the Mid American Conference. The Bulls played Kentucky and Wisconsin on the road. While both resulted in double digit losses, Buffalo played each team tough. The Bulls are a good scoring and rebounding team. Buffalo only turns the ball over 11 times a game meaning they should be able to handle West Virginia's press. Stephen F. Austin has taken over the Southland Conference the last few years. The Lumberjacks started 1-3 this season, but finished 28-1. Stephen F. Austin is a good scoring, passing, and efficient team. The Lumberjacks played spoiler last year as one of the three 12 seeds to upset a 5 seed. Wofford challenged themselves in their non-conference schedule going 10-4 against the 26th toughest non-conference strength of schedule. The Terriers defeated fellow tournament team North Carolina St. on the road. Wyoming has already played spoiler this postseason. The Cowboys won the Mountain West Conference stealing an NCAA tournament bid from a bubble team. Wyoming finished the season 25-9 going 11-7 in a tough Mountain West Conference. The Cowboys are 4-2 against NCAA tournament teams and have the 8th best scoring defense in the country. All four of these 12 seeds will be tough outs in the tournament.

While your bracket will not be broken by failing to pick the 12 seed upsets over the 5 seeds, it will certainly make you look better at the water cooler tomorrow morning when you can brag about all of the upsets that you called. The NCAA tournament starts later today and the 5 seeds should be plenty worried. The 12 seeds have recent history on their side and they are all ready to prove that they belong.

How to Seed a Mid-Major…Usually Not Very Well

The mid-majors generally do not get much love from the Selection Committee on Selection Sunday. From strong mid-majors being under-seeded to quality mid-majors being left out of the tournament for mediocre power conference teams, it can be a rough day for mid-major programs that had a great season despite the odds of being in a mid-major conference.

Let us start with who got snubbed. Colorado St. and Temple both deserved in the field and not even in the First Four games. Here is how their two resumes stacked up:

Team	Record	NCSOS	Road/Neutral	Last 12	Top 100 Record	Wins Against Tourney Teams
Colorado St.	27-6	76	12-5	9-3	5-5	Four
Temple	23-10	48	9-8	9-3	8-8	Two

Both teams challenged themselves in their non-conference schedule and played in conferences with multiple NCAA tournament teams. Both teams had quality wins with Temple having one of the most convincing wins of any team all year: a 25 point destruction of 2 seeded Kansas. Every year, quality teams like Colorado St. and Temple get left out for teams from power conferences with many losses even for a team playing in a tougher conference. This season Indiana, North Carolina St., Oklahoma St., Texas, and UCLA all had 13 losses, but safely made it into the NCAA tournament even avoiding the First Four games. There are always things that these mid-majors could do to better state their case like avoiding bad losses, but for the most part the selection committee will look to a bigger name over a better resume when it puts a power conference team next to a mid-major conference team.

Now let us look at some of the mid-major teams that got under-seeded by the Selection Committee. The Missouri Valley Conference’s two representatives, Northern Iowa and Wichita St., were two of the teams most slighted by the Selection Committee. Northern Iowa received a 5 seed despite RPI suggesting a 4 seed along with BPI and KenPom suggesting a 3 seed. Everyone who picks a bracket each year knows how tough it is to get out of the first round as a 5 seed. Northern Iowa defeated three tournament teams while going 30-3 including an 8-2 record against the RPI Top 100. Wichita St. received a 7 seed despite RPI suggesting a 5 seed along with BPI and KenPom suggesting a 4 seed. Wichita St. defeated two tournament teams while going 28-4 including a 7-4 record against the RPI Top 100. Wichita St. has been here before being an under-seeded 9 seed while making a Final Four run.

The final two teams to get a bad seed from the Selection Committee were Dayton and Brigham Young who were considered two of the last four teams in the tournament forcing them to play in the First Four games. Dayton defeated two tournament teams while going 25-8 including 7 wins against the RPI Top 100. Dayton received an 11 seed despite RPI and BPI suggesting an 8 seed along with KenPom suggesting a 10 seed. Brigham Young defeated two tournament teams while going 25-9 including a 4 wins against the RPI Top 100. Brigham Young received an 11 seed despite BPI and KenPom suggesting an 8 seed along with RPI suggesting a 9 seed. Both teams should have easily avoided the First Four games in Dayton.

While rankings systems tend to have their flaws, it is hard to overlook the under-seeding of these fours teams. Based on the average seedings from the RPI, BPI, and KenPom ranking systems, Northern Iowa was seeded below six teams that it should have been seeded above. Similarly, Wichita St. was seeded below 11 teams, Dayton was seeded below eight teams, and Brigham Young was seeded below 10 teams that they should have been seeded above. These low seeds usually provide a spark for the mid-majors to prove themselves in the tournament. Last season, Dayton overcame a 10 seed to make it to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2011, Virginia Commonwealth came out of the First Four games to make an Elite Eight run. Unfortunately for teams like Colorado St. and Temple, there is no chance for them to prove themselves since the Selection Committee left them out, but their season is not over. Wichita St. was left out of the tournament in 2011 despite a worthy at-large bid. The Shockers won the NIT Championship proving the Selection Committee wrong and continued to do so by making the NCAA Final Four in 2013. The best thing for mid-majors to do is to keep fighting. It took Gonzaga and Butler many years, but they are now considered regulars with the power conferences.

The Mid-Major Elites and the Art of Bracket Busting

The term "mid-major" may be offensive to some teams not in the power conferences. Over the last two decades, many mid-majors have solidified their seat at the table among the power conferences. These mid-major elites have garnered top seeds, upset previous National Champions, and made many Final Fours and National Championship games in the NCAA tournament. The mid-majors have six Final Four teams in the last nine seasons and won one National Championship (1990 UNLV) since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams back in 1985.

We will start with the Gonzaga Bulldogs who have become the most prominent mid-major elite. When the bracket expanded to 64 teams, it opened up many more opportunities for mid-majors to prove themselves in the big dance. The first weekend of the tournament became a spectacle when many of these mid-majors started upsetting quality power conference teams causing many people to toss their projected bracket into the trash. Gonzaga was one of the first teams to garner the name "bracket buster." Many times, programs are unable to immediately build off of a tournament upset like Northern Iowa's monstrous upset of #1 ranked Kansas in 2010. It took Northern Iowa five years to get back to the tournament. For Gonzaga, their initial bracket busting was just the beginning. The Bulldogs continue to dominate the West Coast Conference regularly making the NCAA tournament and playing spoiler. Gonzaga regularly ranks in the Top 25 and continues to get a top seed every year in the tournament. This will be the Bulldogs 17th straight NCAA tournament appearance, which is the sixth best streak of all-time.

Gonzaga is not the only mid-major to take it to the next level in the NCAA tournament. The Butler Bulldogs have made a name for themselves as well over that same period. Everybody knows the history of Hinkle Fieldhouse, but the arena is not just home to history of the past. Butler continues to create new legacies for the Bulldogs program. In 2010 and 2011, Butler made back-to-back National Championship games and were a half-court buzzer beater away from defeating the Duke Blue Devils to win it all. Not only has Butler built off of their bracket busting success, it has improved the program's standing amongst other conferences. The Bulldogs moved out of the Horizon Conference and into the Big East Conference, which is a former power conference and remains a fringe power conference.

The most recent program to enter the frame of bracket busting is the Wichita St Shockers. Gregg Marshall has taken his team to new heights practically every season. The Marshall era went from a losing record to CBI to NIT to NIT champions to NCAA to NCAA Final Four to a 1 seed. There is no telling what this amazing group can do this season and beyond under the excellent leadership of Marshall. Fellow Missouri Valley Conference mate, Northern Iowa, is looking to be the next Gonzaga, Butler, or Wichita St. as they have been a consistent top 10 program this season. The Panthers have proven that they know how to bust brackets. Just ask Kansas. If Northern Iowa can build off of this season, the Panthers could help return the Missouri Valley Conference to its glory days when they regularly sent multiple teams to the NCAA tournament.

The path from mid-major to mid-major elite is tough to predict, but rest assured that it is only a matter of time before another team breaks into the realm of elite status. Will it be San Diego St. who has consistently competed for the Mountain West Conference Championship and made seven straight NCAA tournaments? Will it be Davidson who built on their success to move up from the Southern Conference into the Atlantic 10 Conference? The tournament starts tomorrow. We may soon find out.

NCAA Tournament: First Four and Day 1 Viewing Guide

Every game of the tournament is, of course, available online or on various channels on TV. But if you can only watch just one game at a time, follow our bolded games to see what we think will be the best action from the First Four and the games on Thursday. Friday's viewing guide is coming soon.

Tuesday, March 17

6:40PM, truTV - (16) Hampton vs. (16) Manhattan - The First Four games are easy because they are one right after the other. No decisions need to be made. The winner of this one gets Kentucky. Congratulations.

9:10PM, truTV - (11) BYU vs. (11) Ole Miss - Xavier gets the winner of this one. Ole Miss has slumped down the stretch, but that doesn't mean they can't win. The NCAA Tournament will always surprise you.

Wednesday, March 18

6:40PM, truTV - (16) Robert Morris vs. (16) North Florida - Duke has struggled early in the tournament in recent years. If that trend is to continue, one of these teams will have to play extremely well. The Blue Devils are the best they have been in a long time. North Florida would give them the better game.

9:10PM, truTV - (11) Dayton vs. (11) Boise St. - One of our biggest Selection Sunday shockers was Dayton as an 11 seed and one of the last four in. We thought the Flyers were safe. Now they get a home game against Boise St. It won't be easy, but give the edge to Dayton in their home arena.

Thursday, March 19

12:15PM, CBS - (14) Northeastern vs. (3) Notre Dame - The first game of the day is naturally where you should start your viewing. Tune into Northeastern and Notre Dame, but only for a few minutes because better games are ahead.

12:40PM, truTV - (14) UAB vs. (3) Iowa St. - UAB has not had the kind of season that past UAB teams have had. Nevertheless, the Blazers are used to playing and winning games in the NCAA Tournament. It will be a tough task to take down Iowa St., but UAB won't be intimidated.

1:40PM, TBS - (14) Georgia St. vs. (3) Baylor

2:10PM, TNT - (15) Texas Southern vs. (2) Arizona

2:45PM, CBS - (11) Texas vs. (6) Butler - By the time the early games are finishing up, Texas and Butler will be getting started, which is a great game to get the next wave started. Texas came into the season as the favorite to win the Big 12. They did not do that. They didn't even get close. In fact, lots of people don't even think they should be in the tournament. Butler had the opposite season. They were picked to finish 6th in the Big East, but had a solid year and earned their at-large spot. This should be a close game worth having on until the end.

3:10PM, truTV - (11) UCLA vs. (6) SMU

4:10PM, TBS - (11) Ole Miss vs. (6) Xavier - When they Texas/Butler game has been decided, flip over to Ole Miss against Xavier. This would have been a close game regardless of who won the First Four game.

4:40PM, TNT - (10) Ohio St. vs. (7) VCU

6:50PM, TBS - (16) Lafayette vs. (1) Villanova - All the game should be finished around the time this one is getting started. See if the Leopards can hang with Villanova for just 20 minutes before the next game gets going.

7:10PM, CBS - (9) Purdue vs. (8) Cincinnati - Eight-Nine match-ups are always fun because the teams are usually so evenly matched. The winner of this game probably gets Kentucky, though, so don't spend too much time here. Chances are these teams won't be around past the weekend.

7:20PM, TNT - (13) Harvard vs. (4) North Carolina

7:27PM, truTV - (12) Stephen F. Austin vs. (5) Utah - Now we're talking. This is the game to watch for awhile. Stephen F. Austin had another great season in Southland play. They won a tournament game last year too, so they're used to this situation. Utah looked for parts of the season like a 3-4 seed. They have fallen to a 5, but that doesn't mean they can't get back their mid-season form. It will be interesting to see which style of play wins out here - SFA likes to score and Utah will try to slow it down.

9:20PM, TBS - (9) LSU vs. (8) NC State

9:40PM, CBS - (16) TBD vs. (1) Kentucky

9:50PM, TNT - (12) Wofford vs. (5) Arkansas - This is another 12-5 match-up that could result in an upset. The Terriers will want to keep it low scoring, but that will be a difficult task against the offense of Arkansas.

9:57PM, truTV - (13) Eastern Washington vs. (4) Georgetown - We like both of these late night match-ups, so you'll have to use your best judgement. See which game is the most competitive and watch that one. Eastern Washington is looking to be the next team to take out Georgetown early in the tournament. The Hoyas, for their part, are trying to figure out how to get back to the Sweet 16.

Cinderella Suggestions

Is your bracket too chalk? Don't have any upsets? Here are some mid-major teams from each bracket who won't be favored but we think have the best chance to win a game or 2 and make a run at the Sweet 16. Are we picking all of these teams to go to the Sweet 16? No. But if you're looking for teams who could make a run, these are your best bet.

Midwest

(12) Buffalo - The Bulls play (5) West Virginia in their first round match-up. We like the Bulls for several reasons. First and foremost is Justin Moss. The Junior forward averages 17.7 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. He doesn't quite average a double-double, but he has had plenty during the year. The second reason we like the Bulls is because we don't think they will struggle with WVU's press. The Mountaineers like to turn their opponent over, but Buffalo has a Sophomore guard named Shannon Evans who can handle that pressure. He averages 4.7 assists per game to just 2.6 turnovers. Buffalo as a team averages only 11 turnovers a game. The game will be decided by that stat. If the Bulls can protect the ball, they can win the game. If WVU turns them over, they will win.

(13) Valparaiso - If one of these teams is able to run their offense efficiently, they will win the game. Neither team averages 70 points per game, so scoring could be at a premium. If Valpo is able to play the defense they have been playing against Horizon League competition against Maryland, they will be right in this game. The Crusaders give up just 59.3 points per game and hasn't given up more than 76 points in a non-overtime game all season. These teams are going to struggle to score, so if one team can get their players to the rim, they will win the game.

(7) Wichita St. - The Shockers as a Cinderella? The committee put Wichita St. in the field as a 7 seed, which sets them up in more of an underdog role. That's a position the Shockers haven't been in in several years. Last year, in fact, Wichita St. went into the tournament as a number 1 seed and undefeated. This year's squad will have something to prove, though. Indiana, their first round opponent, is a game we expect the Shockers to win. Their second round game would be against Kansas more than likely. That is where the upset pick really comes in. We like Wichita St. to take down the Jayhawks. The Shockers have been trying to schedule Kansas for years to prove that they are on the same playing field as one of the best programs of all time. Kansas hasn't taken that bait, but they won't be able to avoid it if both teams win their first round games. Wichita St. will come in with all the motivation they need to pull off the upset and get to the Sweet 16.

West

(12) Wofford - The Terriers are making their 2nd straight NCAA Tournament appearance after going 28-6 during the regular season and 16-2 in SoCon play. They have wins this year over Iona and NC State and have played Stanford, West Virginia, and Duke as well in the non-conference. In other words, they are tested and they performed well in those tests. They're led by Senior guard Karl Cochran who is one of the best players in the tournament nobody has heard of. Cochran leads the team in points (14.6), rebounds (5.8), assists (2.7), steals (1.8), and blocks (1.1) per game. Cochran will have an impact on this game. The real key, though, is pace of play. Wofford wants a slow and deliberate pace. They want to keep the score low. Arkansas wants to get out and run. They score 78 points per game, so they are looking to score quickly and frequently. If the Terriers can slow the game down and frustrate Arkansas, they will have a chance.

(11) BYU - Any team who can beat Gonzaga should be taken seriously. BYU was the only team to beat Gonzaga in WCC play and, along with Arizona, one of only two teams to beat them all year long. The Cougars have arguably the best scorer in the tournament in Tyler Haws who averages 21.9 points per game. BYU as a team does a great job scoring the basketball, in fact. They are 2nd in the country in scoring at 83.6 points per game. They play in the First Four in Dayton, so they have an extra game to get past, but this team has the talent to bust some brackets and make the Sweet 16.

East

(11) Dayton - For our money, the Flyers as an 11 seed is a horrible job of mis-seeding by the committee. Dayton should be on the 8-9 line, but as it stands they are playing in the First Four. That could be a blessing in disguise, though. It's essentially going to be a home game for the Flyers who would then play Providence in Columbus. That game would also be heavily attended by Flyer faithful. And don't think home court advantage is the only thing Dayton has going for them. They beat Texas A&M and Ole Miss in the non-conference. They also have wins over VCU and a pair of wins over Rhode Island. Even ore promising for Dayton is that Providence finished the season just 6-6 over their last 12 games.

(14) Albany - The Great Danes had one of the great moments of Championship Week with their buzzer beater against Stony Brook. It would be another miracle if they were able to advance in this tournament. They will be a decided underdog against the Big 12's Oklahoma. Albany is no stranger to winning, though. They are 24-8 overall, and they went 15-1 in America East play. As a 14 seed, this would be one of the bigger upsets in the tournament, but if any 14 can win this year, it's the Great Danes.

South

(12) Stephen F. Austin - The Lumberjacks have dominated the Southland Conference over the last several years. And they won one of the most exciting games of last year's NCAA Tournament when they beat VCU in the first round. They were a 12 seed then as well, so this is a position to they accustomed to. They have a prolific offense, mostly because of how well they share the ball. They are 1st in the nation in assist per game. It pays off for me. They have the 5th best field goal percentage in the country and score the 9th most points per game. They will be playing against a good defensive team in Utah, so if Stephen F. Austin can score at will, they will win the game. If it's a low scoring affair, that benefits the Utes.

(13) Eastern Washington - This pick is as much about Georgetown as it is about Eastern Washington. We like the Eagles, but the Hoyas have struggled in the NCAA Tournament in recent years. They have lost in the first round in 3 of the last 4 years and haven't made the Sweet 16 since 2007. For a team with expectations like Georgetown, that is unacceptable. The streak could continue this year because Eastern Washington will give them all they can handle. The Eagles beat Indiana in Assembly Hall, so they won't be intimidated. They have won 6 of 7 overall and are playing good basketball at the right time. They player you should know is Sophomore guard Tyler Harvey who averages 22.9 points per game for this high flying offense. The Eagles will give up points, but they can outscore their opponents. Georgetown better hope they have a game plan that can keep the Eagles in check or they may not make it out of the first round yet again.